- The Rays are -150 favorites vs the Guardians
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley
- Guardians starting pitcher: Xzavion Curry
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Tampa Bay Rays (-150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+125) on Sunday, September 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Rays vs Guardians Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 82-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 70-66 ATS.
Rays vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +105 | O 9.5 -110 | -150 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -125 | U 9.5 -110 | +125 |
Rays vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 59.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 21 games (+10.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.75 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kole Calhoun has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+10.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+9.40 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rene Pinto | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Guardians vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Rene Pinto | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +130 | 1.5 -165 |
Guardians vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rene Pinto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Guardians vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Xzavion Curry | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 76 of their last 136 games (+7.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 away games (+4.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 94 games (+13.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+6.60 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.94 Units / 42% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 70-65 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 3.07% ROI).
- 82-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 2.99% ROI
- 72-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.9 Units / 4.61% ROI
- 59-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.3 Units / -13.08% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 70-66 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 0.99% ROI).
- 66-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.95 Units / -8.25% ROI
- 54-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.15 Units / -20.89% ROI
- 77-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.2 Units / 12.28% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (62/204) against Taj Bradley this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 35% (35/101) against Taj Bradley this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed an OPS of 1.486 (60 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 1.091 — first Percentile.
Taj Bradley has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (142/304) when behind in the count this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (39/161) against Xzavion Curry since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has a strikeout rate of just 35% (55 SO in 158 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (39/161) against Xzavion Curry since last season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (88/290) against Xzavion Curry since last season — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 15-23 (.395) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Rays are just 10-22 (.312) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Rays are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .437.
The Rays are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 33-103 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .131.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 17-46 (.270) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 147 strikeouts in 427 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters are slugging .512 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Rays have scored first in 57% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .648 (1,546 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Guardians hitters have just 1,467 strikeouts in 8,143 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,090 strikeouts in 11,268 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 5 of 182 batters (3%) over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 372 of 5,007 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 756 of 10,937 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (627.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.08 (380.1 IP) against division opponents this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
The Guardians have allowed 3.85 runs per game (262/68) at home this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.62.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Gavin Williams (Guardians): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
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