- The Rays are -115 favorites vs the Mariners
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Watch the game on FOX
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-105) on Saturday, July 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Seattle.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Rays vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 57-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 36-44 ATS.
Rays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | O 7 +105 | -115 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -190 | U 7 -125 | -105 |
Rays vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.35 Units / 63% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+10.50 Units / 93% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.45 Units / 70% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.55 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- AJ Pollock has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+8.80 Units / 110% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 33 games (+8.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.40 Units / 44% ROI)
Mariners vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mariners vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mariners vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Randy Arozarena | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 8.5 +120 | 8.5 -155 |
| George Kirby | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 54 of their last 85 games (+19.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 85 games (+16.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 85 games (+12.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 85 games (+9.75 Units / 10% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+4.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+2.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 47-38 against the Run Line (+9.75 Units / 9.73% ROI).
- 57-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.35 Units / 11.65% ROI
- 47-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.3 Units / 9.93% ROI
- 34-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.85 Units / -19.12% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 36-44 against the Run Line (-12.25 Units / -11.81% ROI).
- 38-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.35 Units / -13.94% ROI
- 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -2.3% ROI
- 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -6.42% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (81/218) against Tyler Glasnow over the last 30 days (5 games) — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last six games — Spencer Strider has the longest active streak at 16.
Tyler Glasnow has walked 13 of 109 batters (12%) over the last 30 days (5 games) — 4th highest among in MLB; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (81/218) against Tyler Glasnow over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 7 of 376 batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (991/1,387) this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (489/687) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has thrown elevated pitches 60% of the time (148/248) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rays are 10-2 (.833) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Rays are 19-9 (.679) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Rays are 10-10 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Rays are 46-2 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .893.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mariners are just 2-26 (.071) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Mariners are 99-5 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are 18-10 (.643) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mariners are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rays hitters are slugging .480 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays hitters are slugging .478 at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays hitters are slugging .478 with bases empty this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .274 (351 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Mariners are batting just .208 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rays pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 658 of 9,055 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 59% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 215 of 2,981 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mariners pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 666 of 9,011 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mariners vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Back, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Leg, D10
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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