- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-125) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Rays vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 57-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 37-44 ATS.
Rays vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -110 | +105 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -110 | -125 |
Rays vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+13.35 Units / 64% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.65 Units / 95% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+8.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 34 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+8.80 Units / 110% ROI)
- AJ Pollock has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.40 Units / 51% ROI)
Mariners vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Mike Ford | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Mariners vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Luke Raley | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Mike Ford | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
Mariners vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Luke Raley | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mike Ford | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Mariners vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
| Taj Bradley | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -140 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 54 of their last 86 games (+18.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 86 games (+15.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 86 games (+11.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 86 games (+8.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+11.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+3.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+3.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 47-39 against the Run Line (+8.75 Units / 8.64% ROI).
- 57-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.25 Units / 10.78% ROI
- 48-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.3 Units / 10.86% ROI
- 34-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.85 Units / -19.98% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 37-44 against the Run Line (-11.25 Units / -10.67% ROI).
- 39-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.35 Units / -12.96% ROI
- 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.05 Units / -1.16% ROI
- 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -7.48% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley has a strike rate of 73% (204/278) in two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed a slugging percentage of .731 (38 Total Bases / 52 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .424 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (44/137) against Taj Bradley this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed an OPS of 1.616 (46 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 1.105 — first Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 43% (43 SO in 100 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .164 (28-for-171) against Luis Castillo this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed an OBP of just .227 (185 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 66% of the time (342/518) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Rays are 10-11 (.476) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Rays are 23-8 (.742) after a home win this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .541.
The Rays are 10-2 (.833) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Rays are 30-14 (.682) after a home loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mariners are 100-5 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Mariners are just 2-26 (.071) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Mariners are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Mariners are just 2-17 (.105) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 77% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rays hitters are slugging .542 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Rays hitters are slugging .480 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Rays hitters are slugging .457 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .226 at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .370 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 661 of 9,096 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 59% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 217 of 3,014 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mariners pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Mariners pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Leg, D10
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Back, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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