- The Marlins are -120 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Tampa Bay Rays (+100) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-120) on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Rays vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 80-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 58-73 ATS.
Rays vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -110 | +100 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -110 | -120 |
Rays vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 52.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Rays vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+11.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.50 Units / 69% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 22 games (+15.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.30 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Marlins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Osleivis Basabe | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Marlins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Osleivis Basabe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Osleivis Basabe | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 74 of their last 132 games (+8.35 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+4.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 42% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+11.83 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.89 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games at home (+3.37 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games at home (+2.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 68-63 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 2.98% ROI).
- 80-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.49% ROI
- 70-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.95 Units / 4.78% ROI
- 57-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.15 Units / -13.39% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-73 against the Run Line (-29.7 Units / -17.05% ROI).
- 66-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.95% ROI
- 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.55 Units / -12.39% ROI
- 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 3.62% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 45% of the time (358/788) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total CUT; League Avg: 19% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 48% of the time (188/394) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total CUT; League Avg: 20% — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has an ERA of 1.86 (48.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 4.43 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 45% of the time (689/1,546) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total CUT; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 71% (514/719) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
54% of Sandy Alcantara’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of 40% (225/570) against Sandy Alcantara this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (264/511) against Sandy Alcantara this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 91st Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Rays are 11-5 (.688) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Rays are just 10-22 (.312) after a win as underdogs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Rays are 80-52 (.606) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Marlins are just 32-70 (.314) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Marlins are just 94-24 (.797) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Marlins are just 7-32 (.179) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
The Marlins are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters are slugging .451 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Rays hitters are slugging .513 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .781 (3,954 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 79 extra-base hits out of 293 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 160 extra-base hits out of 542 total hits (just 29%) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Rays pitchers have walked 752 of 10,788 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 164 of 2,613 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
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