- The Mets are -185 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Luis Patiño, 0.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco, 5.40 ERA
- Watch the game on wPIX
The Tampa Bay Rays (+150) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-185) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Port St Lucie.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Rays vs Mets Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Rays are 5-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 4-5 ATS.
Rays vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -110 | O 9.5 -115 | +150 |
| Mets | -1.5 -110 | U 9.5 -105 | -185 |
Rays vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 67.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Kevin Kiermaier has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+0.85 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Patrick Mazeika has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+3.50 Units / 69% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+2.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 53 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 away games (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games at home (+23.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 78 games at home (+23.27 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 8-4 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 31.15% ROI).
- 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -12.77% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -2.7% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -4.46% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 4-5 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -12.45% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.15 Units / -35.32% ROI
- 7-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.95 Units / 51.3% ROI
- 2-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.9 Units / -57.84% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Patino has limited playing time.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed an OPS of 1.539 (106 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .500 against Carlos Carrasco (44-for-88) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .690 (58 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on inside fastballs last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .420 — first Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters put 39% of their swings in play against LHP last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Rays batted just .201 with runners on base over the last 30 days of the regular season (29 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters have grounded into 205 double plays in 2,580 opportunities (8%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters struck out just 29 times in 177 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 30 days of the regular season (17 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 820 of 11,928 batters (7%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 988 of 14,140 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 206 of 3,433 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 168 of 2,905 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
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