- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Josh Fleming
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Rays vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 32-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 16-27 ATS.
Rays vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -125 |
Rays vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Rays vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+16.95 Units / 113% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+10.30 Units / 74% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.80 Units / 58% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+11.20 Units / 93% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Daniel Vogelbach has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.05 Units / 47% ROI)
Mets vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Mets vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Mets vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Mets vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Josh Fleming | 2.5 -135 | 2.5 +105 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 43 games (+17.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+7.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 33 games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 26-17 against the Run Line (+10.3 Units / 20.77% ROI).
- 32-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.2 Units / 23.34% ROI
- 24-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.05 Units / 12.74% ROI
- 16-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.65 Units / -22.61% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 16-27 against the Run Line (-12.05 Units / -23.13% ROI).
- 20-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -23.07% ROI
- 19-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.7 Units / -14.05% ROI
- 23-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 4.47% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josh Fleming has not struck out any hitters in 66 PA’s in PAs ending on fastballs away since last season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Josh Fleming has struck out just 10% (22/220) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 13% (13 SO in 99 PAs) on low non-fastballs since last season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 38% — first Percentile.
Josh Fleming has struck out just 10% (22/220) of right-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has walked 13 of 63 batters (21%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (36/101) against Kodai Senga this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (162/460) against Kodai Senga in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 23 of 163 batters (14%) this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 8% — eighth Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Rays are 8-7 (.533) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Rays are 32-11 (.744) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 7-4 (.636) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Rays are 2-10 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Mets are 108-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Mets are just 0-20 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are just 1-6 (.143) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Mets are 41-32 (.562) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of .919 (309 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Rays hitters are slugging .556 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .868 (852 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .858 (1,659 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 1,051 strikeouts in 5,344 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have chased just 17% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .355 (909 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Mets hitters have just 320 strikeouts in 1,616 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 37 of 371 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D15
- James Yacabonis (Mets): Quad, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D60
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Tomás Nido (Mets): Eye, D10
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor Strain, D60
- Yandy DÃaz (Rays): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
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