- The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Orioles
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (-125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (+105) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Rays vs Orioles Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 92-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 88-59 ATS.
Rays vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -105 | -125 |
| Orioles | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -115 | +105 |
Rays vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 56.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Orioles and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Rays vs Orioles and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 22 away games (+16.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+11.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.25 Units / 65% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+13.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Bradish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jack Flaherty has hit the Earned Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
Orioles vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Orioles vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cedric Mullins | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ramon Urias | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Orioles vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Grayson Rodriguez | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +110 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 81-68 against the Run Line (+15.3 Units / 8.59% ROI).
- 92-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.25 Units / 5.25% ROI
- 79-66 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 4.04% ROI
- 66-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.8 Units / -12.14% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Orioles have gone 88-59 against the Run Line (+24.15 Units / 12.7% ROI).
- 91-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +31.3 Units / 16.3% ROI
- 75-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.4 Units / 5.85% ROI
- 60-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.8 Units / -13.98% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Glasnow has a strikeout rate of 58% (79 SO in 135 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 37% (110/298) against Tyler Glasnow this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 99th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has a strikeout rate of 57% (142 SO in 248 PAs) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .097 (22-for-227) against Tyler Glasnow with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .174 — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of .569 (66 Total Bases / 116 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .382 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 73% (27/37) against Grayson Rodriguez on fastballs away this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 52% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .404 (63-for-156) against Grayson Rodriguez in non-two strike counts this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .338 — fourth Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has walked 21 of 178 left-handed batters (12%) this season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 10th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Rays are just 11-24 (.314) after a win as underdogs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Rays are 16-5 (.762) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 15-5 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 69-3 (.958) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Orioles are 30-18 (.625) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Orioles are 86-18 (.827) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Orioles are 73-17 (.811) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Orioles are 79-54 (.594) after a loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .779 (4,470 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .331 (5,643 PA’s) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 33-15 (.688) against the run line (26.5% ROI) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .502.
Orioles hitters have drawn 162 walks in 1,631 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles are 186-120 (.604) against the run line (12.6% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles are batting .252 with two outs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 174 of 2,769 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays pitchers have walked 405 of 5,471 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 789 of 11,401 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Orioles pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Orioles pitchers have walked 184 of 2,759 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 277 of 4,165 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Terrin Vavra (Orioles): Shoulder, D60
- Dillon Tate (Orioles): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Félix Bautista (Orioles): Arm, D15
- Keegan Akin (Orioles): Back, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Jose Siri (Rays): Hand, D10
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