- The Rays are -110 favorites vs the Padres
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Tampa Bay Rays (-110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-110) on Friday, June 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Rays vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 50-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 34-34 ATS.
Rays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +150 | O 8 -115 | -110 |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | U 8 -105 | -110 |
Rays vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 away games (+10.05 Units / 84% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 112% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.50 Units / 73% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+11.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+8.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 72% ROI)
Padres vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Padres vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Shane McClanahan | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 72 games (+20.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 72 games (+19.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 45 of their last 72 games (+15.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games (+14.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+9.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 61 games (+21.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 17% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 40-32 against the Run Line (+9.85 Units / 11.88% ROI).
- 50-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.75 Units / 16.69% ROI
- 39-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 7.17% ROI
- 30-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -16.53% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 34-34 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -4.61% ROI).
- 33-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.65 Units / -14.87% ROI
- 23-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.4 Units / -33.27% ROI
- 43-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.1 Units / 24.61% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane McClanahan has 28 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
The last hit on a Shane McClanahan changeup was May 24th. Hitters are 0 for their last 24 in ABs ending on his changeup. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Shane McClanahan has a strike rate of 71% (274/385) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has an ERA of 2.18 (82.2 IP)this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.70 — 98th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 54% of the time (129/238) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown off-speed pitches 79% of the time (38/48) on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 54% of the time (129/238) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has a first-pitch strike rate of just 57% (162/283) this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 10th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 23-6 (.793) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .548.
The Rays are 14-16 (.467) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Rays are 7-1 (.875) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Rays are 9-13 (.409) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .216.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres are 24-33 (.421) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are 32-4 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are just 6-31 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Padres are 6-6 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .522 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .870 (541 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .748.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 82% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays hitters are slugging .587 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 213 walks in 1,792 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 627 walks in 6,140 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 282 walks in 2,563 PA’s (11%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 128 of 2,081 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,632 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.77 (604.0 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Padres vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Leg, D10
- Calvin Faucher (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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