- The Rays are -105 favorites vs the Padres
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Watch the game on FOX
The Tampa Bay Rays (-105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on Saturday, June 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in San Diego.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Rays vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 51-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 34-35 ATS.
Rays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | -105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -115 |
Rays vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 52.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 12 away games (+10.05 Units / 84% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+7.85 Units / 112% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.50 Units / 63% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Brandon Dixon has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Padres vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -115 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Padres vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Blake Snell | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 73 games (+21.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 73 games (+20.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 73 games (+16.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+15.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 73 games (+11.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 62 games (+21.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+10.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 23 games (+3.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 41-32 against the Run Line (+11.45 Units / 13.65% ROI).
- 51-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.75 Units / 17.38% ROI
- 39-30 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 7.09% ROI
- 30-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -16.28% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 34-35 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -6.57% ROI).
- 33-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.8 Units / -15.86% ROI
- 23-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.4 Units / -32.84% ROI
- 43-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.1 Units / 24.21% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (34/193) against Zach Eflin this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed a slugging percentage of just .154 (6 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .378 — 98th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 11 of 277 batters (4%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has located his fastballs down 52% of the time (193/375) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 30 of 233 right-handed batters (13%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Blake Snell has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (120/233) of opposing batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has allowed three-ball counts to 34% of batters they faced (99/294 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — first Percentile.
Blake Snell has a strike rate of just 58% (726/1,257) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 16-6 (.727) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .430.
The Rays are 7-1 (.875) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Rays are 23-6 (.793) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
The Rays are 51-22 (.699) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres are just 6-32 (.158) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Padres are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Padres are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Padres are just 6-9 (.400) after a home win this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .547.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .597 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Rays hitters are slugging .460 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 82% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays hitters are slugging .519 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 215 walks in 1,804 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .216 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Padres are batting just .229 this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 129 of 2,090 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Rays pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,665 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .225.
Padres pitchers have walked 10 of 213 batters (5%) over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Leg, D10
- Calvin Faucher (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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