- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays starting pitcher: Yonny Chirinos
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (+120) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Sunday, June 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Rays vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 51-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 35-35 ATS.
Rays vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -145 |
Rays vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 67.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 away games (+9.05 Units / 70% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 73% ROI)
- Zach Eflin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 73% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.50 Units / 63% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 26 games (+9.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 72% ROI)
Padres vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Padres vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Padres vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yonny Chirinos | 2.5 -110 | 2.5 -120 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 74 games (+20.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 74 games (+19.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 74 games (+14.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+14.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games (+9.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 63 games (+22.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+11.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 24 games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 41-33 against the Run Line (+9.55 Units / 11.13% ROI).
- 51-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.75 Units / 16.4% ROI
- 39-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 5.64% ROI
- 31-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -14.83% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 35-35 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -4.63% ROI).
- 34-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.8 Units / -14.68% ROI
- 23-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.5 Units / -33.78% ROI
- 44-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.1 Units / 25.18% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yonny Chirinos has a strikeout rate of just 27% (17 SO in 63 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has struck out just 7% (5/67) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Yonny Chirinos has struck out just 7% (5/67) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 15% (14/96) against Yonny Chirinos this season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 67% (20/30) against Joe Musgrove over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 80.7 MPH on inside pitches since last season (227 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 85.6
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.2 MPH (142 batted balls) this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 89.3 — 98th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.0 MPH against his fastballs since last season (231 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 90.5
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Rays are 15-17 (.469) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Rays are 23-7 (.767) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Rays are 23-6 (.793) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Rays are 9-8 (.529) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Padres are just 7-32 (.179) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Padres are just 6-9 (.400) after a home win this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Padres are 24-34 (.414) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Padres are 32-5 (.865) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .587 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .846 (573 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
Rays hitters are slugging .503 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 82% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 218 walks in 1,836 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .216 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Padres are batting just .220 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Padres hitters are slugging just .377 at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 71% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rays pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,689 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 133 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Leg, D10
- Calvin Faucher (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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