- The Rays (69-56) are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox (61-65)
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (6-3), 2.46 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (5-5), 4.68 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 66-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 62-61 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -125 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -115 | +105 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+16.65 Units / 66% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+13.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.30 Units / 54% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+14.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.40 Units / 130% ROI)
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -155 |
| Jeffrey Springs | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 away games (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 106 games (+8.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 44 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 47 games at home (+3.05 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 59-63 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -2.8% ROI).
- 66-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -3.87% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -5.41% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -2.35% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 62-61 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.43% ROI).
- 59-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -7.71% ROI
- 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -5.93% ROI
- 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.25% ROI
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (500/1,158) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (326/1,050) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to August 4th — the longest active streak is 8.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown off-speed pitches 61% of the time (185/301) when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total NonFB; League Avg: 39% — 96th Percentile.
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (669/1,317) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,138/2,698) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (1,779/3,813) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,320/2,984) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 12-10 (.545) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 42-23 (.646) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Rays are 43-8 (.843) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Rays are just 57-8 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 3-47 (.060) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Red Sox are just 2-49 (.039) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Red Sox are 138-43 (.762) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Red Sox are just 8-10 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Rays hitters have 804 strikeouts in 3,347 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .715 (3,345 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .751 (7,592 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .183 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 151 of 2,583 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 735 of 10,600 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 58 of 1,121 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 299 of 4,602 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 3 of 107 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.70 (576.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
The Red Sox have won 44% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 809 times this season — 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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