Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 27, 2022, 9:28 AM
  • The Rays (69-56) are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox (61-65)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (6-3), 2.46 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (5-5), 4.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Tampa Bay Rays (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 66-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 62-61 ATS.

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 +125O 8.5 -105-125
Red Sox +1.5 -155U 8.5 -115+105

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+16.65 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+13.20 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Shane McClanahan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.30 Units / 54% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+14.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+10.40 Units / 130% ROI)

Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Kevin Plawecki 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Kevin Plawecki 0.5 -160 0.5 +110

Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Kevin Plawecki 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Rich Hill 3.5 +110 3.5 -155
Jeffrey Springs 4.5 -160 4.5 +110
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 40 away games (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 106 games (+8.35 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 44 games (+5.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 47 games at home (+3.05 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+0.10 Units / 1% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 59-63 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -2.8% ROI).

  • 66-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.75 Units / -3.87% ROI
  • 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -5.41% ROI
  • 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -2.35% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 62-61 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.43% ROI).

  • 59-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -7.71% ROI
  • 55-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -5.93% ROI
  • 58-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.7 Units / -1.25% ROI

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 43% of the time (500/1,158) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (326/1,050) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 96th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to August 4th — the longest active streak is 8.

Jeffrey Springs has thrown off-speed pitches 61% of the time (185/301) when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total NonFB; League Avg: 39% — 96th Percentile.

Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (669/1,317) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,138/2,698) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (1,779/3,813) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,320/2,984) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 12-10 (.545) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 42-23 (.646) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Rays are 43-8 (.843) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Rays are just 57-8 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 3-47 (.060) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Red Sox are just 2-49 (.039) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Red Sox are 138-43 (.762) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

The Red Sox are just 8-10 (.444) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Rays hitters have 804 strikeouts in 3,347 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays hitters have an OPS of .715 (3,345 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .695.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .751 (7,592 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .183 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Rays pitchers have walked 151 of 2,583 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 735 of 10,600 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 58 of 1,121 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 299 of 4,602 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 3 of 107 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.70 (576.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

The Red Sox have won 44% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 809 times this season — 3rd most in MLB.

Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Elbow, Day-to-Day
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.