- The Rays (69-57) are -115 favorites vs the Red Sox (62-65)
- Rays starting pitcher: Corey Kluber (8-7), 4.19 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (9-9), 4.23 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Sunday, August 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 66-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 63-61 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+17.85 Units / 68% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+14.35 Units / 67% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+15.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+14.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+12.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+10.95 Units / 36% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 22 away games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 59 games (+3.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 107 games (+9.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 25 of their last 45 games (+6.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 59-64 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -3.45% ROI).
- 66-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -4.56% ROI
- 55-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -6.16% ROI
- 59-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.61% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 63-61 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.23% ROI).
- 60-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.6 Units / -6.97% ROI
- 55-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -6.66% ROI
- 59-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -0.51% ROI
Corey Kluber: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corey Kluber has walked 18 of 535 batters (3%) this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Corey Kluber has allowed an OPS of .937 (120 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .685 — fifth Percentile.
Corey Kluber has a strikeout rate of just 12% (14 SO in 120 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 15% (3/20) against Corey Kluber — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .625 (25 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — eighth Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 139 of Nick Pivetta’s 609 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (436/1,036) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,457/3,483) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 12-10 (.545) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 42-23 (.646) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Rays are 43-8 (.843) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Rays are just 57-8 (.877) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 7-26 (.212) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 3-47 (.060) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Red Sox are just 2-49 (.039) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 815 strikeouts in 3,372 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters have 345 strikeouts in 1,065 PA’s (32%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Rays have scored 440 runs in late innings since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .183 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 151 of 2,591 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 904 of 12,843 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 300 of 4,633 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 2 of 107 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 9 of 215 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (24 games) — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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