- The Rays are -110 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: FSUN | NESN | MLBN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-110) on Thursday, July 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Rays are 50-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 49-44 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 5-6, 4.78 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 6-6, 6.28 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -105 | -110 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -115 | -110 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+17.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 15 games (+7.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+19.10 Units / 318% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.85 Units / 99% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.90 Units / 75% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games at home (+9.70 Units / 102% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 36 away games (+16.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 away games (+11.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+9.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 away games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 76 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 89 games (+10.01 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.05 Units / 74% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 46-45 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.77% ROI).
- 50-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.68 Units / 2.33% ROI
- 39-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.4 Units / -16.84% ROI
- 51-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.85 Units / 8.73% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 49-44 against the Run Line (+5.15 Units / 4.34% ROI).
- 49-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.66 Units / -3.61% ROI
- 47-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.71 Units / -3.59% ROI
- 46-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -5.65% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Abraham Toro (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler (BOS) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (19/133) against Taj Bradley this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (9/70) against Taj Bradley with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed a slugging percentage of .469 (67 Total Bases / 143 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — ninth Percentile.
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of just 14% (12 SO in 88 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Walker Buehler has thrown just 33% of his pitches in the strike zone (157/481) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .324 (80-for-247) against Walker Buehler when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 0 Percentile.
Walker Buehler has a first-pitch strike rate of just 48% (11/23) over the past seven days (1 game) — 4th lowest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 36% of Walker Buehler’s fastballs (187/518) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 4-33 (.108) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Rays are 22-18 (.550) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Rays are 34-4 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Rays are 111-2 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 12-6 (.667) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rays (Ranks seventh runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox are just 2-29 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .261 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .290 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Rays are batting .281 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Rays are batting .190 with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .973 (477 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .595 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.051 (135 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .692.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.155 (94 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 80 double plays in 591 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% against Rays pitchers this month (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% this month (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Red Sox pitchers this month (8 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 2% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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