- The Red Sox are -200 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: FSUN | NESN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-200) on Saturday, July 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Rays are 50-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 51-44 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 8-4, 4.34 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 9-4, 2.42 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -115 | +165 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -105 | -200 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 61.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+19.50 Units / 325% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.45 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.75 Units / 87% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 away games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games (+10.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 away games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games (+10.05 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+9.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games (+9.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 91 games (+7.81 Units / 6% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 46-47 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -0.92% ROI).
- 50-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.58 Units / 0.49% ROI
- 39-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.6 Units / -17.61% ROI
- 52-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.85 Units / 9.52% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 51-44 against the Run Line (+7.15 Units / 5.88% ROI).
- 51-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.66 Units / -2.02% ROI
- 47-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.91 Units / -4.64% ROI
- 47-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.85 Units / -4.59% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz has a strikeout rate of 72% (18 SO in 25 PAs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .126 (26-for-207) against Shane Baz with two-strikes this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 89th Percentile.
Shane Baz has a strike rate of 67% when ahead in the count (fourth highest)– 95th Percentile and 64% when behind in the count this season (tied for fourth lowest among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed a slugging percentage of .681 (124 Total Bases / 182 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .540 — second Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Crochet has 38 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
16 of Garrett Crochet’s 49 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 94th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 56% (42 SO in 75 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
16 of Garrett Crochet’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 4-34 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Rays are 16-161 (.090) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are 6-35 (.146) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Rays are 34-4 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 14-6 (.700) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rays (Ranks seventh runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 18-158 (.102) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
The Red Sox are just 5-178 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .260 this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .314 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .266 (1,889 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.086 (146 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .273 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Red Sox are batting .439 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 80 double plays in 602 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Rays pitchers this month (10 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays pitchers have walked 12% of batters over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this month (10 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Red Sox pitchers this month (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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