- The Rays are +100 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: FSUN | NESN | MLBN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+100) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-120) on Sunday, July 13, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA, MA.
This season, the Rays are 50-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 51-45 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 6-6, 3.35 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 5-3, 3.29 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -102 | +100 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -118 | -120 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ryan Pepiot has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.30 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+19.50 Units / 325% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 63% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.45 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.75 Units / 87% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 39 away games (+15.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+11.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+9.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 away games (+8.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 games (+13.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+10.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 92 games (+8.81 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.55 Units / 18% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 47-47 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.08% ROI).
- 50-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.42 Units / -0.35% ROI
- 39-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.7 Units / -18.46% ROI
- 53-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.85 Units / 10.37% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 51-45 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 5.02% ROI).
- 52-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.66 Units / -1.25% ROI
- 47-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.01 Units / -5.62% ROI
- 48-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -3.61% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .169 (30-for-177) against Ryan Pepiot this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .123 (26-for-211) against Ryan Pepiot with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 92nd Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .111 (8-for-72) against Ryan Pepiot in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed an OBP of .338 (240 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (97/175) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents batted .269 (64-for-238) against Brayan Bello when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 15th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 58% (454/776) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 51% (242/474) against Brayan Bello in the 2024 season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 91st Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 6-36 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Rays are 4-35 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Rays are 41-4 (.891) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Rays are 111-3 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 15-6 (.714) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Rays (Ranks seventh runs scored) today.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 9-87 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Red Sox are just 18-158 (.102) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .138.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .284 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Rays are batting .258 this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Rays hitters had an OPS of just .669 (6,006 PA’s) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .550 (1,903 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters are slugging .545 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.004 (143 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 81 double plays in 608 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Rays pitchers this month (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Red Sox pitchers this month (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this month (11 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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