Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 4

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (49-29) are favorites vs the (49-29)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jalen Beeks (1-1), 2.70 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Austin Davis (1-1), 2.45 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Tampa Bay Rays () visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox () on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 43-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 44-35 ATS.

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays O
Red Sox U

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 73.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • No trends found

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games at home (+6.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +170 1.5 -250

Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+7.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 78 games (+6.95 Units / 8% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 37-42 against the Run Line (-4.5 Units / -4.66% ROI).

  • 43-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -2.96% ROI
  • 36-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -6.85% ROI
  • 39-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.51% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 44-35 against the Run Line (+10.25 Units / 10.38% ROI).

  • 44-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 2.73% ROI
  • 31-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.05 Units / -12.65% ROI
  • 39-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.9 Units / 6.78% ROI

Matt Wisler has thrown his slider 97% of the time (252/260) when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Matt Wisler has thrown breaking pitches 98% of the time (120/123) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Matt Wisler has thrown his slider 98% of the time (120/123) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 11% (5/44) against Matt Wisler this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.

Austin Davis: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Austin Davis has walked 12 of 76 right-handed batters (16%) this season — 6th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — sixth Percentile.

Austin Davis has a strike rate of just 58% (194/335) against right-handed batters this season — 6th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 30% (27/90) against Austin Davis with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — fourth Percentile.

Austin Davis has allowed an OPS of just .445 (50 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .654 — 97th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 3-28 (.097) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Rays are 79-13 (.859) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.

The Rays are 18-5 (.783) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Rays are 66-6 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Red Sox are just 36-6 (.857) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Red Sox are 22-10 (.688) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are 18-4 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Rays hitters have an OPS of just .447 (1,581 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.

Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 303 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Rays are batting .294 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Rays hitters have 707 strikeouts in 2,944 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .346 (696 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Rays pitchers have walked 39 of 707 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 643 of 8,901 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 207 of 2,903 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (1118.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox have won 44% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Red Sox have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.37 (379.1 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox): Thigh, Day-to-Day
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.