Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox (45-35) are -125 favorites vs the Rays (43-37)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (3-2), 2.25 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-5), 3.23 ERA
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 43-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 45-35 ATS.

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays+1.5 -185O 9 -105+105
Red Sox -1.5 +150U 9 -115-125

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • No trends found

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +290 0.5 -450
Jarren Duran 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Trevor Story 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Jarren Duran 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Trevor Story 0.5 -250 0.5 +160

Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +115 0.5 -165
Jarren Duran 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Trevor Story 0.5 +125 0.5 -185

Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeffrey Springs 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
Nick Pivetta 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+6.15 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 away games (+3.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 51 games (+16.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+14.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+13.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 41 of their last 73 games (+8.65 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 79 games (+7.95 Units / 9% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 37-43 against the Run Line (-6.3 Units / -6.4% ROI).

  • 43-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.82% ROI
  • 36-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -8.13% ROI
  • 40-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.62% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 45-35 against the Run Line (+11.85 Units / 11.88% ROI).

  • 45-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 3.67% ROI
  • 31-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -13.83% ROI
  • 40-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.9 Units / 7.84% ROI

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 45% of the time (316/708) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has struck out 32% (93/288) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — 92nd Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has a strikeout rate of 47% (29 SO in 61 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away since the start of last season — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 94th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has a strikeout rate of 50% (37 SO in 74 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away since the start of 2020 — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 98th Percentile.

Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 16% (46/285) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% (34/96) against Nick Pivetta in two-strike counts this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — ninth Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 79 of Nick Pivetta’s 367 off-speed pitches out of the zone (21%) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (186/386) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 18-5 (.783) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .672.

The Rays are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 21-86 (.196) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Rays are 16-93 (.147) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Red Sox are just 37-6 (.860) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.

The Red Sox are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are 22-10 (.688) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rays hitters have an OPS of just .444 (1,600 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.

Rays hitters have 709 strikeouts in 2,951 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rays hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Rays hitters have an OBP of just .299 (1,498 PA’s) at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .765 (6,321 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .468 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

Rays pitchers have walked 644 of 8,936 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have walked 40 of 715 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (1118.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

Rays pitchers have walked 133 of 2,177 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.9 MPH this season (1,960 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Red Sox have won 44% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.