- The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Watch the game on NESN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 41-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 30-28 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -115 | -125 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -105 | +105 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 63.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+10.60 Units / 118% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+7.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jose Siri has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+6.35 Units / 91% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+14.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 58% ROI)
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Taj Bradley | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Tanner Houck | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 60 games (+16.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 60 games (+15.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games (+13.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 56 games (+11.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+11.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+11.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+7.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games at home (+3.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games at home (+2.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 33-27 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 10.41% ROI).
- 41-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.6 Units / 17.02% ROI
- 35-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.4 Units / 15.7% ROI
- 22-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.75 Units / -25.48% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 30-28 against the Run Line (-0.85 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 30-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 4.13% ROI
- 34-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.4 Units / 14.78% ROI
- 22-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.1 Units / -25.06% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of 34% (42 SO in 122 PAs) this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .417 (10 GB hits out of 24 GBs) against Taj Bradley this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .246 — second Percentile.
Taj Bradley had a strike rate of 72% (65/90) — 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 96th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has walked 5 of 122 batters (4%) this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .275 (25 Total Bases / 91 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .421 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (32/101) against Tanner Houck on sliders since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 9-7 (.562) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Rays are 41-19 (.683) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 9-12 (.429) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Rays are 16-3 (.842) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 12-20 (.375) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Red Sox are just 1-3 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 12-15 (.444) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Red Sox are 4-24 (.143) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .569 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Rays hitters are slugging .624 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Rays hitters have an OPS of .933 (413 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 81% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .399 (208 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .360 (1,135 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Red Sox are batting .340 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have won 75% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rays pitchers have walked 565 of 8,077 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 32 of 492 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (783.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.04.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.93 (263.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 101 times since last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Hip, D15
- Zack Littell (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jose Siri (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, Day-to-Day
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