- The Rays are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow (0-0), 3.00 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (8-7), 4.41 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (-145) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 86-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 80-79 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +120 | O 7.5 -110 | -145 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 7.5 -110 | +120 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -165 |
| Rich Hill | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 away games (+6.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 77 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 130 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-80 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.03% ROI).
- 86-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -2.27% ROI
- 70-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -8.54% ROI
- 79-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.36% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 80-79 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -1.48% ROI).
- 75-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.7 Units / -9.02% ROI
- 75-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -3.12% ROI
- 74-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -4.55% ROI
Tyler Glasnow: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 26 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Tyler Glasnow. — Jesse Chavez has the longest active streak at 37.
The last hit on a Tyler Glasnow curveball was June 1st, 2021. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his curveball. — Chris Flexen has the longest active streak at 29.
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (1,268/3,111) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
18 of Rich Hill’s 63 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (2,013/4,406) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (402/793) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 36-9 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Rays are 51-30 (.630) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 163 double plays in 2,171 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters have 2,064 strikeouts in 8,523 PA’s (24%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays have scored 1.51 runs per game (480/318) in late innings since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Rays hitters have grounded into 25 double plays in 404 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,501 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 375 of 5,834 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 811 of 11,832 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 204 of 3,412 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 166 of 2,884 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.17 (108.0 IP) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Red Sox have won 39% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 399 times this season — most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Senger Peralta (Rays): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Yandy Díaz (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
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