Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Rays are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow (0-0), 3.00 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (8-7), 4.41 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Tampa Bay Rays (-145) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 86-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 80-79 ATS.

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 +120O 7.5 -110-145
Red Sox +1.5 -145U 7.5 -110+120

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 57.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +1100 0.5
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +1000 0.5
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Rafael Devers 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Rafael Devers 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Rafael Devers 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Glasnow 5.5 +120 5.5 -165
Rich Hill 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.90 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.45 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 away games (+6.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 77 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 130 games (+8.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+5.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-80 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.03% ROI).

  • 86-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.05 Units / -2.27% ROI
  • 70-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -8.54% ROI
  • 79-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.36% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 80-79 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -1.48% ROI).

  • 75-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.7 Units / -9.02% ROI
  • 75-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -3.12% ROI
  • 74-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -4.55% ROI

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 26 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Tyler Glasnow. — Jesse Chavez has the longest active streak at 37.

The last hit on a Tyler Glasnow curveball was June 1st, 2021. Hitters are 0 for their last 17 in ABs ending on his curveball. — Chris Flexen has the longest active streak at 29.

Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (1,268/3,111) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

18 of Rich Hill’s 63 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (2,013/4,406) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (402/793) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 36-9 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

The Rays are 51-30 (.630) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Red Sox are just 8-11 (.421) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

Rays hitters have grounded into 163 double plays in 2,171 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Rays hitters have 2,064 strikeouts in 8,523 PA’s (24%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Rays have scored 1.51 runs per game (480/318) in late innings since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

Rays hitters have grounded into 25 double plays in 404 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .335 (1,501 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Red Sox are batting .263 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rays pitchers have walked 375 of 5,834 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 811 of 11,832 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 204 of 3,412 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 166 of 2,884 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.17 (108.0 IP) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Red Sox have won 39% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 399 times this season — most in MLB.

Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Senger Peralta (Rays): Hip, Day-to-Day
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Yandy Díaz (Rays): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.