- The Red Sox (77-84) are -145 favorites vs the Rays (86-75)
- Rays starting pitcher: Josh Fleming (2-4), 6.23 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (10-12), 4.56 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 86-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 82-79 ATS.
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -110 | +120 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -110 | -145 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.D. Martinez | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -300 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -115 |
| Josh Fleming | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-82 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -2.02% ROI).
- 86-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -3.38% ROI
- 70-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -9.59% ROI
- 81-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 1.46% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 82-79 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.47% ROI).
- 77-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.5 Units / -7.82% ROI
- 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -4.21% ROI
- 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -3.37% ROI
Josh Fleming: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josh Fleming has a strike rate of 71% (429/601) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 17% (27 SO in 161 PAs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 37% — second Percentile.
Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 32% (90 SO in 283 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Josh Fleming has thrown inside pitches 56% of the time (337/601) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has walked 70 of 754 batters (9%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,639/3,934) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (233/1,130) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of .326 (754 PA’s) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 10th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 10-35 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Rays hitters have 1,028 strikeouts in 4,222 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays have scored 1.50 runs per game (480/319) in late innings since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .752 (8,549 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 817 of 11,892 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 985 of 14,104 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.97 (1474.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.
Rays pitchers have walked 206 of 3,425 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.61 (726.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.27 (654.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Colin Poche (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
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