Rays vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (77-84) are -145 favorites vs the Rays (86-75)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Josh Fleming (2-4), 6.23 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (10-12), 4.56 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Tampa Bay Rays (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 86-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 82-79 ATS.

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays+1.5 -175O 8 -110+120
Red Sox -1.5 +145U 8 -110-145

Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 57.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jeffrey Springs has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+13.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 35 games at home (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.10 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)

Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +1050 0.5
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Christian Arroyo 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +195 1.5 -300

Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Christian Arroyo 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Enrique Hernandez 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +135 0.5 -190

Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Pivetta 5.5 -125 5.5 -115
Josh Fleming 2.5 -115 2.5 -120
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+3.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 79-82 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -2.02% ROI).

  • 86-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -3.38% ROI
  • 70-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -9.59% ROI
  • 81-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 1.46% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 82-79 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.47% ROI).

  • 77-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.5 Units / -7.82% ROI
  • 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -4.21% ROI
  • 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -3.37% ROI

Josh Fleming has a strike rate of 71% (429/601) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.

Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 17% (27 SO in 161 PAs) on low non-fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 37% — second Percentile.

Josh Fleming has a strikeout rate of just 32% (90 SO in 283 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.

Josh Fleming has thrown inside pitches 56% of the time (337/601) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.

Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Pivetta has walked 70 of 754 batters (9%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — fourth Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,639/3,934) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (233/1,130) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of .326 (754 PA’s) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 10th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Rays are 54-8 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.

The Rays are just 72-11 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rays are 36-10 (.783) when scoring in the first inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Rays are 40-11 (.784) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 10-35 (.222) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rays hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Rays hitters have 1,028 strikeouts in 4,222 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Rays have scored 1.50 runs per game (480/319) in late innings since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 64% at home since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .752 (8,549 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Red Sox are batting .271 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Rays pitchers have walked 817 of 11,892 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 985 of 14,104 batters (7%) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.97 (1474.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.95.

Rays pitchers have walked 206 of 3,425 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox have won 47% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.61 (726.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.27 (654.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.

Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Ryan Thompson (Rays): Triceps, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Ryan Yarbrough (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Colin Poche (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Foot, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.