- The Rays are -115 favorites vs the Reds
- Rays vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Rays / Reds TV Channel: FDOH | FSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Sunday, July 27, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Rays are 53-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 56-48 ATS.
Rays vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 8-6, 4.66 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Brady Singer 7-8, 4.87 ERA
Rays vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -118 | -115 |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 -102 | -105 |
Rays vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+11.60 Units / 145% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+12.80 Units / 183% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+7.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 89 games (+14.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 88 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 away games (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 40 away games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 82 games (+19.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+8.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games at home (+6.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 38% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 48-55 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -5.94% ROI).
- 53-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.07 Units / -4.6% ROI
- 42-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.2 Units / -19.94% ROI
- 59-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.4 Units / 11.68% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 56-48 against the Run Line (+1.32 Units / 0.94% ROI).
- 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.62% ROI
- 41-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.34 Units / -22.06% ROI
- 61-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.05 Units / 13.81% ROI
Reds vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -350 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Reds vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Reds vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer (CIN) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -118 |
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz has a strike rate of 67% when ahead in the count (third highest)– 96th Percentile and 65% when behind in the count this season (lowest among qualified SPs)– first Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed a slugging percentage of .680 (138 Total Bases / 203 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .536 — first Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed an OBP of just .261 (180 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 85th Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed a slugging percentage of .437 (188 Total Bases / 430 ABs) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 15th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer has walked 10% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Brady Singer threw his slider 46% of the time (1,350/2,967) in the 2024 season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer threw his slider 58% of the time (470/813) with two-strikes in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Brady Singer threw his slider 44% of the time (726/1,643) vs left-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rays are 4-41 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Rays are 7-41 (.146) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Rays are 35-5 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Rays are 16-168 (.086) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Reds are just 8-22 (.267) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 16-33 (.327) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 26-5 (.839) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .185 with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,170 PA’s) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
27% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have 53 extra-base hits out of 176 total hits (just 30%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 46% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters have chased 21% of pitches out of the zone over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 86 double plays in 673 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Reds pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 53% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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