- The Rays (45-37) are -185 favorites vs the Reds (29-54)
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan (9-3), 1.73 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 3.09 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Tampa Bay Rays (-185) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+150) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Rays vs Reds Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 45-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 36-47 ATS.
Rays vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 -105 | O 7 +105 | -185 |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | U 7 -125 | +150 |
Rays vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s matchup with 56.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- player high – away
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- player high – home
Reds vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Michael Papierski | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Reds vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Michael Papierski | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Reds vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Michael Papierski | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
Reds vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
| Shane McClanahan | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.60 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 57 games (+1.50 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+1.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 39-43 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -4.21% ROI).
- 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.92% ROI
- 37-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -7.94% ROI
- 41-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.49% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 36-47 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -16.81% ROI).
- 29-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.6 Units / -20.92% ROI
- 45-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 4.31% ROI
- 37-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -14.11% ROI
Shane McClanahan: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane McClanahan has struck out 37% (117/318) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has 33 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan has a strikeout rate of 36% (133 SO in 370 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 7% (1/14) against Shane McClanahan — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 47% (24 SO in 51 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (217/364) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (169/288) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has walked 68 of 539 left-handed batters (13%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rays are 28-5 (.848) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Rays are 20-5 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .669.
The Rays are 20-6 (.769) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Rays are 81-13 (.862) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Reds are just 5-42 (.106) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Reds are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .919.
The Reds are just 10-43 (.189) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Reds are just 14-26 (.350) on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .414 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 304 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Rays have scored 1.76 runs per game (425/241) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .289 (380 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Reds hitters have 530 strikeouts in 2,207 PA’s (24%) against RHP this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 41 of 733 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rays pitchers have walked 647 of 9,012 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (1118.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 41 double plays in 645 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 926 of 9,402 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.48 (386.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Reds vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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