Rays vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 8

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 08, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Rays (45-37) are -185 favorites vs the Reds (29-54)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan (9-3), 1.73 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (3-4), 3.09 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Tampa Bay Rays (-185) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+150) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Rays vs Reds Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 45-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 36-47 ATS.

Rays vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 -105O 7 +105-185
Reds +1.5 -115U 7 -125+150

Rays vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s matchup with 56.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player high – away 

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • player  high – home

Reds vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jonathan India 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Michael Papierski 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Nick Senzel 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Reds vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jonathan India 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Michael Papierski 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Nick Senzel 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Tommy Pham 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Reds vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jonathan India 0.5 +260 0.5 -450
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Michael Papierski 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Nick Senzel 0.5 +250 0.5 -400

Reds vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Luis Castillo 5.5 -155 5.5 +110
Shane McClanahan 7.5 +100 7.5 -140
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 58 games (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.60 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 57 games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 57 games (+1.50 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+1.35 Units / 21% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 39-43 against the Run Line (-4.3 Units / -4.21% ROI).

  • 45-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.92% ROI
  • 37-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -7.94% ROI
  • 41-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 0.49% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 36-47 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -16.81% ROI).

  • 29-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.6 Units / -20.92% ROI
  • 45-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 4.31% ROI
  • 37-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.9 Units / -14.11% ROI

Shane McClanahan has struck out 37% (117/318) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.

Shane McClanahan has 33 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Shane McClanahan has a strikeout rate of 36% (133 SO in 370 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 7% (1/14) against Shane McClanahan — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 47% (24 SO in 51 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (217/364) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (169/288) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has walked 68 of 539 left-handed batters (13%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Rays are 28-5 (.848) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .798.

The Rays are 20-5 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .669.

The Rays are 20-6 (.769) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Rays are 81-13 (.862) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Reds are just 5-42 (.106) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

The Reds are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .919.

The Reds are just 10-43 (.189) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Reds are just 14-26 (.350) on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.

The Rays are batting .414 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.

Rays hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 304 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Rays have scored 1.76 runs per game (425/241) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.

Reds hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .289 (380 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Reds hitters have 530 strikeouts in 2,207 PA’s (24%) against RHP this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Rays pitchers have walked 41 of 733 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Rays pitchers have walked 647 of 9,012 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (1118.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 41 double plays in 645 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 926 of 9,402 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.48 (386.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

Reds vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.