- The Rays (45-38) are -150 favorites vs the Reds (30-54)
- Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (5-3), 3.30 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-10), 6.01 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Tampa Bay Rays (-150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Rays vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 45-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 37-47 ATS.
Rays vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +105 | O 9.5 -105 | -150 |
| Reds | +1.5 -125 | U 9.5 -115 | +125 |
Rays vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 84% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 81% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Matt Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Matt Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Reds vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Reds vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Reds vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Drury | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nick Senzel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +105 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+4.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.10 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games (+8.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 58 games (+2.50 Units / 3% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 39-44 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -5.23% ROI).
- 45-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.35% ROI
- 37-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -8.96% ROI
- 42-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 1.56% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 37-47 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -15.68% ROI).
- 30-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.05 Units / -18.97% ROI
- 45-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 38-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -12.84% ROI
Drew Rasmussen: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Rasmussen has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.2 MPH on pitches away since the start of last season (146 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 87.9
Opponents are hitting just .235 (20-for-85) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% (39/82) against Drew Rasmussen on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.
Drew Rasmussen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .311 (60 Total Bases / 193 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .443 — 97th Percentile.
Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .909 (50 Total Bases / 55 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .428 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .533 (16-for-30) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .280 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .851 (114 Total Bases / 134 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .547 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (26 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .443 — 0 Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rays are 20-5 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
The Rays are 81-13 (.862) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Rays are 28-5 (.848) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Rays are 10-7 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Reds are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
The Reds are just 16-28 (.364) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Reds are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.
The Reds are just 5-42 (.106) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .450 (1,659 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have an OBP of just .299 (1,498 PA’s) at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rays hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,457 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Reds hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% against LHP over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 36% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 41 of 743 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (1118.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Rays pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rays pitchers have walked 134 of 2,205 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 41 double plays in 648 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.36 (396.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Reds have allowed 1.86 runs per game (156/84) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Reds vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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