Rays vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Rays (45-38) are -150 favorites vs the Reds (30-54)
  • Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen (5-3), 3.30 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-10), 6.01 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Tampa Bay Rays (-150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+125) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Rays vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Rays are 45-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 37-47 ATS.

Rays vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 +105O 9.5 -105-150
Reds +1.5 -125U 9.5 -115+125

Rays vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Rays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.55 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 81% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Matt Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)

Reds vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Jonathan India 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Nick Senzel 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Reds vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jonathan India 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Mike Moustakas 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Nick Senzel 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Reds vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Jonathan India 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Mike Moustakas 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Nick Senzel 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Reds vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Greene 5.5 -150 5.5 +105
Drew Rasmussen 3.5 -155 3.5 +105
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+4.50 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.25 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games (+8.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 58 games (+2.50 Units / 3% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 39-44 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -5.23% ROI).

  • 45-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.35% ROI
  • 37-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -8.96% ROI
  • 42-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.45 Units / 1.56% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 37-47 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -15.68% ROI).

  • 30-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.05 Units / -18.97% ROI
  • 45-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.95 Units / 3.19% ROI
  • 38-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -12.84% ROI

Drew Rasmussen has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.2 MPH on pitches away since the start of last season (146 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 87.9

Opponents are hitting just .235 (20-for-85) against Drew Rasmussen when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% (39/82) against Drew Rasmussen on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 96th Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .311 (60 Total Bases / 193 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .443 — 97th Percentile.

Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .909 (50 Total Bases / 55 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .428 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .533 (16-for-30) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .280 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .851 (114 Total Bases / 134 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .547 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .867 (26 Total Bases / 30 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .443 — 0 Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Rays are 20-5 (.800) when scoring in the first inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.

The Rays are 81-13 (.862) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

The Rays are 28-5 (.848) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Rays are 10-7 (.588) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .497.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Reds are just 23-5 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.

The Reds are just 16-28 (.364) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.

The Reds are just 1-44 (.022) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Reds are just 5-42 (.106) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

Rays hitters have an OPS of just .450 (1,659 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays hitters have an OBP of just .299 (1,498 PA’s) at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Rays hitters are slugging just .224 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,457 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

Reds hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 26% against LHP over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 36% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.

Rays pitchers have walked 41 of 743 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (1118.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

Rays pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Rays pitchers have walked 134 of 2,205 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 41 double plays in 648 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.36 (396.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

The Reds have allowed 1.86 runs per game (156/84) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Reds vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Ross Detwiler (Reds): Back, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.