- The Rays are -225 favorites vs the Royals
- Rays starting pitcher: Zachary Eflin
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Tampa Bay Rays (-225) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+180) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Rays vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 60-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 34-59 ATS.
Rays vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -2.5 +110 | O 9.5 -120 | -225 |
| Royals | +2.5 -135 | U 9.5 +100 | +180 |
Rays vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 84.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+16.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Luke Raley has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.05 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Royals vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Royals vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Royals vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
| Brady Singer | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 57 of their last 95 games (+14.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 95 games (+11.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 95 games (+10.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 91 games (+7.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 95 games (+6.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 89 games (+9.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 72 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games at home (+3.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+1.85 Units / 31% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 52-43 against the Run Line (+10.15 Units / 9.01% ROI).
- 60-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.1 Units / 7.19% ROI
- 51-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.6 Units / 6.29% ROI
- 40-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.1 Units / -15.47% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 34-59 against the Run Line (-35.15 Units / -30.85% ROI).
- 26-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.9 Units / -31.97% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.15 Units / -11.88% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 2.39% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (44/401 PA’s) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .186 (35-for-188) against Zach Eflin this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — 97th Percentile.
Zach Eflin allowed a batting average of .263 vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth worst)– 16th Percentile and just .186 vs left-handed batters this season (second best among qualified SPs)– 97th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed an OBP of just .214 (196 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .315 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (84/152) against Brady Singer on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 57% (54/95) against Brady Singer on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Brady Singer has an ERA of 7.42 (30.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.99 — first Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed an OBP of .355 (425 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — second Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Rays are just 2-6 (.250) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Rays are 23-8 (.742) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Rays are 34-6 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Rays are 60-34 (.638) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Royals are just 7-70 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Royals are just 6-20 (.231) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Royals are just 6-12 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Royals are just 6-23 (.207) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .612.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of .791 (722 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 70% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Rays have scored first in 62% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .220 (1,885 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .637 (1,703 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rays pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Rays pitchers have walked 148 of 2,285 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.27 (808.1 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Royals have won just just 12% of the time since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Back, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
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