- The Rays are -110 favorites vs the Twins
- Rays vs Twins Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Rays / Twins TV Channel: FSUN | TWTV
The Tampa Bay Rays (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Rays are 48-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 43-43 ATS.
Rays vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 7-7, 3.63 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 3-7, 4.70 ERA
Rays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +150 | O 10 -118 | -105 |
| Twins | +1.5 -185 | U 10 -102 | -115 |
Rays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+16.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+14.30 Units / 204% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+12.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+11.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+10.15 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+8.80 Units / 220% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 30 away games (+17.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 away games (+12.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 39 games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 78 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 80 games (+4.80 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+4.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 44-43 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 1.71% ROI).
- 48-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.43 Units / 4.06% ROI
- 36-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -17.67% ROI
- 48-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.2 Units / 9.71% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 43-43 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 41-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -11.15% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -13.87% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 5.29% ROI
Twins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -325 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
Twins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Twins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Twins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Zack Littell (TB) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Littell has a strike rate of 73% (292/401) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Littell has walked 3% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Littell has walked 3% of batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Littell has thrown his slider 51% of the time (151/296) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 18% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has a strikeout rate of just 17% (21 SO in 123 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — third Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (42/115) against Chris Paddack when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has struck out just 14% (26/192) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Chris Paddack has walked 6% of left-handed batters this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 84th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 20-14 (.588) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Rays are 4-31 (.114) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Rays are 16-5 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .634.
The Rays are 110-2 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Twins are just 2-107 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins are just 17-28 (.378) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters are slugging .454 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Rays are batting .186 with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Rays hitters have an OBP of .264 (1,725 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Rays hitters are slugging .499 over the last 14 days — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have struck out in 47% of their PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .477 (199 PA’s) over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .740.
27% of Twins hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 78 double plays in 549 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 31% against the Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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