- The Rays are -135 favorites vs the Twins
- Rays vs Twins Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Rays / Twins TV Channel: FSUN | TWTV
The Tampa Bay Rays (-110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-110) on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Rays are 48-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 43-43 ATS.
Rays vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 5-6, 4.78 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 4-6, 5.27 ERA
Rays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | O 9.5 -102 | -110 |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | U 9.5 -118 | -110 |
Rays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Taj Bradley has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+3.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Taj Bradley has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 64% ROI)
- Taj Bradley has hit the Strikeouts Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Taj Bradley has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Taj Bradley has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+2.20 Units / 9% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Gillispie has hit the Earned Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+2.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Connor Gillispie has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Connor Gillispie has hit the Strikeouts Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Connor Gillispie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Connor Gillispie has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
Twins Best Bets Today:
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 44-43 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 1.71% ROI).
- 48-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.43 Units / 4.06% ROI
- 36-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.1 Units / -17.67% ROI
- 49-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.2 Units / 9.71% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 43-43 against the Run Line (-0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 42-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -11.15% ROI
- 37-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.2 Units / -13.87% ROI
- 47-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 5.29% ROI
Twins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
Twins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Twins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Twins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Cole Sands (MIN) | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (9/65) against Taj Bradley with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (19/127) against Taj Bradley this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (47/90) against Taj Bradley in two-strike counts this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 87th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has a strikeout rate of just 13% (11 SO in 82 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has allowed an OBP of .331 (405 PAs) this season — 10th worst among qualified SPs– 12th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of just .261 (708 PAs) last season — sixth best among qualified SPs– 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .294 against Bailey Ober non-fastballs this season — second worst among qualified SPs– third Percentile. Opponents batted just .148 (45-for-304) against him non-fastballs last season — best among qualified SPs– 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (31/116) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a SLG of .541 non-fastballs this season — second worst among qualified SPs– third Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .270 non-fastballs last season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 92nd Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 4-31 (.114) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Rays are 16-158 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Rays are 110-2 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Rays are 20-15 (.571) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .451.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are 10-1 (.909) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Twins are 24-17 (.585) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .503.
The Twins are just 2-107 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins are just 3-7 (.300) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have a winning percentage of 57% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Rays are batting .186 with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .289 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Rays hitters struck out 343 times in 1,369 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have struck out in 50% of their PA’s against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Twins hitters have struck out in 30% of their PA’s over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .183 (240 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 78 double plays in 553 opportunities (14%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 31% against the Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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