- The Rays are -115 favorites vs the Twins
- Rays starting pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-105) on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Rays vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Rays are 88-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 71-72 ATS.
Rays vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -115 | -115 |
| Twins | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -105 | -105 |
Rays vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 22 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+7.75 Units / 111% ROI)
- Aaron Civale has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.30 Units / 49% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+16.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+9.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.40 Units / 26% ROI)
Twins vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Twins vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Yandy Diaz | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Twins vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Royce Lewis | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Taylor Walls | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Yandy Diaz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | 7.5 -150 | 7.5 +115 |
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 81 of their last 144 games (+9.49 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.03 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 away games (+4.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 18 away games (+3.20 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+12.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 25 games (+5.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 77-66 against the Run Line (+12.45 Units / 7.3% ROI).
- 88-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 4.52% ROI
- 77-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.8 Units / 5.55% ROI
- 62-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.6 Units / -13.82% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 71-72 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.32% ROI).
- 75-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.85 Units / -5.97% ROI
- 70-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.15 Units / -2.62% ROI
- 67-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.7 Units / -5.61% ROI
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Glasnow has a strikeout rate of 64% (14 SO in 22 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — best in AL over the last week; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has allowed an OBP of just .166 (235 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (275/773) against Tyler Glasnow this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Tyler Glasnow has a strikeout rate of 58% (74 SO in 128 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 99th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .290 (90 Total Bases / 310 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .398 — 100th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .238 (74 Total Bases / 311 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .321 (195 Total Bases / 608 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .404 — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .166 (33 Total Bases / 199 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .309 — 97th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Rays are 16-23 (.410) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Rays are just 10-23 (.303) after a win as underdogs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Rays are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 15-5 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Twins are just 13-25 (.342) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 13-45 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are 61-1 (.984) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
25% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .286 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Rays hitters have 149 strikeouts in 436 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have a groundball batting average of .309 with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 1,106 strikeouts in 4,042 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .236 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Twins are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Twins hitters have 1,457 strikeouts in 5,431 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 171 of 2,716 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 776 of 11,198 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Rays pitchers have walked 392 of 5,268 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 83 of 1,276 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jose Miranda (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Canterino (Twins): Undisclosed, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Oliver Ortega (Twins): Back, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Foot, D10
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jason Adam (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D60
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Elbow, D10
- Isaac Paredes (Rays): Hand, Day-to-Day
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