- The Rays are -110 favorites vs the Yankees
- Rays vs Yankees Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Rays / Yankees TV Channel: YES | FSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-118) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-102) on Thursday, July 31, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bronx, NY, NY.
This season, the Rays are 54-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 49-59 ATS.
Rays vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 6-8, 3.51 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman 2-2, 6.09 ERA
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -102 | -118 |
| Yankees | +1.5 -170 | U 8.5 -118 | -102 |
Rays vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 7 games (+25.20 Units / 360% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.50 Units / 84% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 92 games (+14.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+13.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 44 away games (+7.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 away games (+6.25 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+12.42 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+3.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 55 games at home (+2.75 Units / 3% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 50-57 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -5.9% ROI).
- 54-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.07 Units / -5.93% ROI
- 43-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.4 Units / -20.21% ROI
- 61-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.3 Units / 12% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 49-59 against the Run Line (-11.45 Units / -9.15% ROI).
- 59-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -9.09% ROI
- 48-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -9.79% ROI
- 55-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.22 Units / 1.85% ROI
Yankees vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
Yankees vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Yankees vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman (NYY) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot allowed an OBP of just .147 (75 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has a first-pitch in-zone of 61% (312/512) this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 56% — 90th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has allowed an OBP of just .252 (107 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .310 — 96th Percentile.
Left-handed batters hit just .111 (8-for-72) against Ryan Pepiot in 2023 — 2nd best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has thrown just 41% of his pitches in the strike zone (662/1,625) against right-handed batters since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .353 (60-for-170) against Marcus Stroman since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.
Marcus Stroman located 76% of his pitches away (1,039/1,360) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed three-ball counts to 28% of right-handed batters he faced (113/408 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 0 Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are just 43-7 (.860) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Rays are 42-5 (.875) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Rays are 16-171 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Rays are 7-43 (.140) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 131-40 (.766) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Yankees were just 4-55 (.068) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Yankees are 153-117 (.567) since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 87 double plays in 692 opportunities (13%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Rays pitchers walked 445 of 6,022 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have an ERA of 3.89 (432.2 IP) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – home
More MLB Reading:
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