- The Yankees (46-16) are -250 favorites vs the Rays (35-27)
- Rays starting pitcher: Jalen Beeks (1-1), 1.38 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino (4-1), 2.80 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Tampa Bay Rays (+200) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-250) on Thursday, June 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Rays vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Rays are 35-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 33-29 ATS.
Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 +100 | O 8 -115 | +200 |
| Yankees | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -105 | -250 |
Rays vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+9.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 27 away games (+8.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.30 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+4.30 Units / 40% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+3.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Yankees vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Yankees vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Yankees vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brett Phillips | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Francisco Mejia | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Harold Ramirez | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Manuel Margot | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Yankees vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games (+5.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 24 away games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 51 games (+3.15 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 52 games (+22.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+5.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 58 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 61 games (+4.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+2.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 30-32 against the Run Line (+0.3 Units / 0.4% ROI).
- 35-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -1.97% ROI
- 28-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -9.68% ROI
- 32-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 1.88% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 33-29 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 5.24% ROI).
- 46-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.95 Units / 16.16% ROI
- 27-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.75 Units / -14.14% ROI
- 33-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 5.16% ROI
Jalen Beeks: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (30/61) when he’s behind in the count this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 96th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has thrown his changeup 56% of the time (163/293) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Jalen Beeks’ elevated fastball this season — tied for 13th best among among 123 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .214 — 90th Percentile.
Jalen Beeks has a strikeout rate of 57% (12 SO in 21 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has allowed a just .272 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 95th Percentile and .480 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth worst among qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Luis Severino has struck out 37% (52/140) of right-handed batters he faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of 69% (20 SO in 29 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 35% (102/287) against Luis Severino this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 21-13 (.618) at home this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Rays are 14-5 (.737) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Rays are 15-86 (.149) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Rays are 66-22 (.750) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .645.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 18-9 (.667) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Yankees are 28-7 (.800) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Yankees are 2-10 (.167) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Yankees are 29-1 (.967) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays have scored 1.86 runs per game (410/221) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.44.
Rays hitters have just 106 strikeouts in 586 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays have scored 1.64 runs per game (363/221) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.32.
Rays hitters have an OBP of just .304 (972 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are slugging .613 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Yankees have a winning percentage of 80% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 28 of 557 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have an ERA of 2.90 (1045.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Rays pitchers have walked 121 of 2,019 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 159 of 2,547 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 70% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have won 60% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 32 of 562 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.8 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.9
Yankees vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Right Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Albertin Chapman (Yankees): Achilles, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Lat, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Hamstring, D15
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Left Achilles , Day-to-Day
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Quad, D10
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Chris Mazza (Rays): Back, D60
- Luis Patiño (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Lowe (Rays): Back, D10
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
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