Rays vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 11, 2023, 3:30 PM
  • The Rays are -115 favorites vs the Yankees
  • Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-105) on Thursday, May 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Rays vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Rays are 29-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 20-18 ATS.

Rays vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Rays-1.5 +145O 8.5 -115-115
Yankees +1.5 -175U 8.5 -105-105

Rays vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 72.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Rays and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Josh Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+13.20 Units / 120% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.55 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Taylor Walls has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+8.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.00 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games at home (+15.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+14.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+8.75 Units / 16% ROI)

Yankees vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Jose Trevino 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Anthony Volpe 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jose Siri 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Yandy Diaz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Yankees vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Mejia 0.5 -135 0.5 +105
Jose Trevino 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Anthony Volpe 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jose Siri 0.5 -120 0.5 -110
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -165 0.5 +130

Yankees vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Francisco Mejia 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jose Trevino 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Anthony Volpe 0.5 +220 0.5 -300
Jose Siri 0.5 +270 0.5 -375
Yandy Diaz 0.5 +210 0.5 -275

Yankees vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Domingo German 5.5 +115 5.5 -150
Drew Rasmussen 4.5 -125 4.5 -105
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 38 games (+16.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+9.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.45 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.15 Units / 20% ROI)

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 23-15 against the Run Line (+9.3 Units / 21.73% ROI).

  • 29-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.35 Units / 24.08% ROI
  • 19-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 2.51% ROI
  • 16-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.25 Units / -12.59% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 20-18 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 6.28% ROI).

  • 21-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 1.11% ROI
  • 15-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.3 Units / -22.28% ROI
  • 22-15 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.35 Units / 12.74% ROI

Drew Rasmussen has walked 10 of 94 right-handed batters (11%) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 14th Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (112/154) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 98th Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen has walked 6 of 31 batters (19%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — fourth Percentile.

Drew Rasmussen has walked 1 of 60 left-handed batters (2%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.

Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .135 (13-for-96) against Domingo German’s non-fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 95th Percentile.

Hitters have chased 58 of Domingo German’s 116 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 50%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .143 (11-for-77) against Domingo German this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 96th Percentile.

Domingo German has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (44/117) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total CB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Rays are 6-5 (.545) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Rays are 6-3 (.667) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.

The Rays are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .047.

The Rays are 5-1 (.833) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Yankees are 22-36 (.379) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .197.

The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.

The Yankees are 25-26 (.490) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .349.

The Yankees are 71-32 (.689) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

Rays hitters are slugging .571 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.

Rays hitters have an OPS of .930 (276 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .742.

Rays hitters are slugging .562 with bases empty this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Rays hitters have an OPS of .854 (1,447 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Yankees hitters have drawn 206 walks in 1,909 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Yankees are batting just .214 with two outs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Yankees hitters have an OBP of .330 (1,909 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Yankees hitters are slugging .556 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Rays pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Rays pitchers have won 67% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Rays have allowed 3.05 runs per game (116/38) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.58.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
  • Thomas Kahnle (Yankees): Bicep, D60
  • Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Oswald Peraza (Yankees): Ankle, D10
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
  • Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D15
  • Aaron Hicks (Yankees): Hip, Day-to-Day
  • Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Peter Fairbanks (Rays): Forearm, D15
  • Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.