Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 19

Houston Astros' Jose Altuve bats during the first inning of a baseball game against the Texas Rangers, Wednesday, July 26, 2023, in Houston.
(AP Photo/Kevin M. Cox)
  • The Red Sox are +105 favorites vs the Astros
  • Red Sox vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Red Sox / Astros TV Channel: NESN | SCHN

The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Monday, August 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.

This season, the Red Sox are 65-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 62-61 ATS.

Red Sox vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-8, 3.01 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi 6-9, 4.50 ERA

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -200O 8 -105+115
Astros -1.5 +165U 8 -115-135

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+24.00 Units / 96% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+16.35 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 away games (+15.90 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 47 games (+14.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 33 games (+33.20 Units / 101% ROI)
  • Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 47 games (+15.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.45 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Walks Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 80 games (+21.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 59 away games (+14.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 59 away games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 123 games (+7.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 62 of their last 123 games (+7.55 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 106 games (+19.80 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 57-66 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -11.01% ROI).

  • 65-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.5% ROI
  • 64-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.05 Units / 4.46% ROI
  • 53-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.8 Units / -12.44% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Astros are 62-61 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 1.38% ROI).

  • 67-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -3.51% ROI
  • 48-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.45 Units / -22.66% ROI
  • 72-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.95 Units / 13.89% ROI

Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Danny Jansen (BOS) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Triston Casas (BOS) 0.5 +575 0.5 -900

Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Jose Altuve (HOU) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Jarren Duran (BOS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +175
Rob Refsnyder (BOS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Jeremy Pena (HOU) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Tyler O'Neill (BOS) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Yainer Diaz (HOU) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Rafael Devers (BOS) 0.5 +170 0.5 -225

Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tanner Houck (BOS) 4.5 -125 4.5 -105
Yusei Kikuchi (HOU) 7.5 +120 7.5 -155

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (134/231) against Tanner Houck this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .243 (49 Total Bases / 202 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .389 — 100th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .284 (82 Total Bases / 289 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .407 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (240/433) against Tanner Houck this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yusei Kikuchi has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Yusei Kikuchi has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .226 (12-for-53) against Yusei Kikuchi on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .349 (52 GB hits out of 149 GBs) against Yusei Kikuchi this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Red Sox are just 3-122 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Red Sox are 22-15 (.595) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.

The Red Sox are 53-11 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.

The Red Sox are just 28-116 (.194) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Astros are just 0-42 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.

The Astros are 78-53 (.595) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Astros are 121-21 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

The Astros are 17-13 (.567) after a road win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .469.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .780 (3,348 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Red Sox are batting .261 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .440 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .451 against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Astros hitters have an OPS of .857 (821 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .682.

Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Astros hitters have just 569 strikeouts in 3,113 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 890 strikeouts in 4,963 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% with runners in scoring position this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have walked 437 of 4,600 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% with runners in scoring position this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
  • Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
  • Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
  • Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
  • Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.