- The Astros (67-37) are -200 favorites vs the Red Sox (52-52)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-3), 4.15 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier (6-6), 3.26 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Boston Red Sox (+165) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Tuesday, August 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 52-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-51 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -115 | +165 |
| Astros | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -105 | -200 |
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+14.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 33 away games (+12.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 32 away games (+12.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 37 away games (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 27 games at home (+11.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 47 games at home (+10.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 33 of his last 47 games at home (+10.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games at home (+9.10 Units / 40% ROI)
Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aledmys Diaz | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Meyers | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristian Javier | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -160 |
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 51 away games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 75 games (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 away games (+6.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 75 games (+6.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 42 away games (+6.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 102 games (+19.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 91 games (+19.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+12.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 88 games (+12.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 85 games (+8.15 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 54-50 against the Run Line (+3.75 Units / 2.89% ROI).
- 52-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -4.45% ROI
- 46-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -6.12% ROI
- 49-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -1% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 53-51 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 3.15% ROI).
- 67-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.55 Units / 4.38% ROI
- 38-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.75 Units / -25.32% ROI
- 62-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.95 Units / 17.25% ROI
Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (8/35) against Kutter Crawford — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — fourth Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has walked 1 of 43 batters (2%) — tied for 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .148 (4 Total Bases / 27 ABs) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .434 — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 69% (101/146) — 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 95th Percentile.
Cristian Javier: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristian Javier has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (387/784) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Cristian Javier has thrown elevated pitches 56% of the time (219/389) when behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .093 (40-for-428) against Cristian Javier with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 99th Percentile.
Cristian Javier has allowed a slugging percentage of just .143 (61 Total Bases / 428 ABs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: .269 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 42-8 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Red Sox are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Red Sox are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 137-20 (.873) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 59-11 (.843) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are 10-4 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 34-21 (.618) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Astros are 26-10 (.722) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .181 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .338 (5,031 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 602 strikeouts in 3,284 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 1,999 strikeouts in 10,178 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have an OBP of .265 (5,221 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.65 (1209.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox have allowed 6.82 runs per game (75/11) over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.56 (362.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.27 (478.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.78 (443.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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