- The Astros are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Astros starting pitcher: Cristian Javier
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-130) on Monday, August 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 66-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 62-63 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Astros | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -105 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 57.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trevor Story has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.35 Units / 90% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.05 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+10.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 44 games (+9.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Mauricio Dubon | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Cristian Javier | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 46 away games (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games (+6.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 away games (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 90 games (+6.20 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+4.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 52 games (+2.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 64-60 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -1.13% ROI).
- 66-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 2.59% ROI
- 60-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -3.27% ROI
- 58-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.45 Units / -6.26% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 62-63 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -2.42% ROI).
- 70-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -1.78% ROI
- 62-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.85 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 60-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.15 Units / -5.27% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .149 (10-for-67) against James Paxton when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 99th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OPS of just .421 (71 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .766 — 100th Percentile.
James Paxton has a strikeout rate of just 31% (9 SO in 29 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for 7th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 10th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .197 (71 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .324 — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .165 (73-for-443) against Cristian Javier since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 37% of Cristian Javier’s non-fastballs (327/890) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .162 (106-for-656) against Cristian Javier since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (28/140) against Cristian Javier this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 13-18 (.419) after a home loss this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
The Red Sox are 50-3 (.943) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Red Sox are 20-13 (.606) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Red Sox are 43-26 (.623) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 72-38 (.655) after a loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros are 35-18 (.660) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Astros are 80-18 (.816) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .370 (541 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .521 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Red Sox are batting .314 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 566 strikeouts in 3,186 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Astros hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 946 strikeouts in 5,267 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 354 of 4,678 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 76 of 1,098 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 36% of the time this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.41 (1263.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.27.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.21 (1297.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Graeber Kessinger (Astros): Health and Safety Protocols, D10
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- José Abreu (Astros): Back, D10
- Phillip Maton (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, Day-to-Day
- Triston Casas (Red Sox): Tooth, Day-to-Day
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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