Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 22

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 22, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Astros are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander
  • Watch the game on TBS

The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-145) on Tuesday, August 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Red Sox are 66-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 63-63 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -160O 9 -120+120
Astros -1.5 +135U 9 +100-145

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 66.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Red Sox vs Astros and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Trevor Story has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.10 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+8.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.35 Units / 73% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.30 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.25 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.00 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Connor Wong 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Rafael Devers 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Masataka Yoshida 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Connor Wong 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Rafael Devers 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Masataka Yoshida 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -250 0.5 +185

Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +225 0.5 -300
Connor Wong 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Rafael Devers 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Masataka Yoshida 0.5 +195 0.5 -250
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +155 0.5 -210

Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tanner Houck 3.5 -160 3.5 +125
Justin Verlander 5.5 -125 5.5 -105
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 away games (+6.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 47 away games (+5.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 57 games (+4.35 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 29 away games (+3.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 91 games (+7.20 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games at home (+4.90 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.70 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 53 games (+3.85 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.75 Units / 24% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 64-61 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -2.23% ROI).

  • 66-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 1.93% ROI
  • 61-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -2.52% ROI
  • 58-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.65 Units / -7.08% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 63-63 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -1.39% ROI).

  • 71-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -1.23% ROI
  • 63-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -2.74% ROI
  • 60-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.35 Units / -6.1% ROI

Tanner Houck allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (30 Total Bases / 132 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .358 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .211 (8-for-38) against Tanner Houck on low fastballs this season — tied for 15th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 86th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has located his fastballs down 43% of the time (382/886) since last season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 94th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 35% of the time (509/1,454) in non-two strike counts since last season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total SL; League Avg: 22% — 92nd Percentile.

Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has thrown elevated pitches 41% of the time (381/924) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .507 (533 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: .711 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .562 (1,131 PA’s) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: .713 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .216 (8-for-37) against Justin Verlander on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .353 — 98th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Red Sox are 54-2 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.

The Red Sox are 21-9 (.700) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .538.

The Red Sox are just 11-17 (.393) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 13-18 (.419) after a home loss this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Astros are 14-11 (.560) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Astros are 44-32 (.579) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.

The Astros are 177-111 (.615) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Astros are 11-7 (.611) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .421.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .516 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .249.

The Red Sox are batting .296 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.

The Red Sox are batting .181 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.

Astros hitters have just 954 strikeouts in 5,313 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 574 strikeouts in 3,232 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters are slugging .587 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .373.

Astros hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 76 of 1,106 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in late innings this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Graeber Kessinger (Astros): Health and Safety Protocols, D10
  • Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • José Abreu (Astros): Back, D10
  • Phillip Maton (Astros): Elbow, D15
  • Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
  • Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, Day-to-Day
  • Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60

Bet now on Red Sox vs Astros and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.