Red Sox vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Astros (67-38) are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox (53-52)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (4-4), 4.20 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (9-4), 3.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Wednesday, August 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 53-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-52 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -125O 8.5 -110+155
Astros -1.5 +105U 8.5 -110-190

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 away games (+15.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 away games (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 33 away games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 48 games at home (+11.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 28 games at home (+10.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+10.10 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 48 games at home (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Vazquez 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Jose Altuve 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Vazquez 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Vazquez 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +160 0.5 -250

Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Urquidy 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Rich Hill 3.5 +120 3.5 -165
Jose Urquidy 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 52 away games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 away games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 43 away games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 76 games (+5.60 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 103 games (+20.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 92 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 89 games (+9.95 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 86 games (+7.15 Units / 7% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 55-50 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 3.62% ROI).

  • 53-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -3.07% ROI
  • 46-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -7.06% ROI
  • 50-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 53-52 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 2.3% ROI).

  • 67-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 3.13% ROI
  • 38-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.9 Units / -26.07% ROI
  • 63-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.95 Units / 17.95% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of 76% (22/29) against Brayan Bello — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 37% of Brayan Bello’s pitches (10/27) with two-strikes — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.

Brayan Bello has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to July 6th — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 9.

Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .463 (41 PA’s) — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .303 — third Percentile.

José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (63/189) against Jose Urquidy this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has struck out just 16% (39/244) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — ninth Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 70% (547/786) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (60/337) against Jose Urquidy this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Red Sox are just 43-8 (.843) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Red Sox are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Red Sox are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Astros are 59-12 (.831) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Astros are just 3-29 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Astros are 39-3 (.929) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Astros are 24-4 (.857) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Astros hitters have just 603 strikeouts in 3,287 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 223 strikeouts in 1,206 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 2,007 strikeouts in 10,215 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,107 times this season — 5th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have won 33% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.77 (452.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.