- The Astros (67-38) are -190 favorites vs the Red Sox (53-52)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (4-4), 4.20 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (9-4), 3.85 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Wednesday, August 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Red Sox vs Astros Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 53-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 53-52 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -110 | +155 |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -110 | -190 |
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 38 away games (+15.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 away games (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 33 away games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 48 games at home (+11.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 28 games at home (+10.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+10.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 48 games at home (+9.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Vazquez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Vazquez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Vazquez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Urquidy | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
| Rich Hill | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -165 |
| Jose Urquidy | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 52 away games (+9.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 48 away games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 43 away games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 76 games (+5.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 103 games (+20.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 92 games (+18.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 89 games (+9.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 86 games (+7.15 Units / 7% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 55-50 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 3.62% ROI).
- 53-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -3.07% ROI
- 46-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -7.06% ROI
- 50-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 53-52 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 2.3% ROI).
- 67-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 3.13% ROI
- 38-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.9 Units / -26.07% ROI
- 63-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.95 Units / 17.95% ROI
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 76% (22/29) against Brayan Bello — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 37% of Brayan Bello’s pitches (10/27) with two-strikes — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Brayan Bello has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to July 6th — Max Fried has the longest active streak at 9.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .463 (41 PA’s) — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .303 — third Percentile.
José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (63/189) against Jose Urquidy this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — seventh Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has struck out just 16% (39/244) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — ninth Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 70% (547/786) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (60/337) against Jose Urquidy this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 43-8 (.843) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Red Sox are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 1-41 (.024) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Red Sox are just 2-39 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are 59-12 (.831) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Astros are just 3-29 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Astros are 39-3 (.929) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Astros are 24-4 (.857) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 603 strikeouts in 3,287 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 223 strikeouts in 1,206 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,007 strikeouts in 10,215 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,107 times this season — 5th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have won 33% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.77 (452.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.86.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Neck, Day-to-Day
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Robert Refsnyder (Red Sox): Knee, D10
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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