- The Blue Jays are -200 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+165) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-200) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 42-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 38-46 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -115 | +165 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -105 | -200 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 78.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 18 away games (+12.95 Units / 72% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 48 games (+20.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 44 games (+16.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 29 of his last 40 games (+13.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+13.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+12.45 Units / 41% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Daulton Varsho | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gausman | 6.5 -250 | 6.5 +180 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| Gausman | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -110 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 away games (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 59 games (+16.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-41 against the Run Line (-3.15 Units / -2.86% ROI).
- 42-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -1.62% ROI
- 44-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.95% ROI
- 38-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -11.95% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 38-46 against the Run Line (-11.9 Units / -11.27% ROI).
- 45-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -7.29% ROI
- 38-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -8.88% ROI
- 42-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.11% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has a strike rate of 72% (328/457) over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .455 (10-for-22) against Garrett Whitlock — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .248 — second Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 80% (126/158) of opposing batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman has allowed an OPS of just .286 (259 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .494 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has a strikeout rate of 33% (139 SO in 425 PAs) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .128 (31 Total Bases / 243 ABs) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .107 (26-for-243) against Kevin Gausman with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 7-17 (.292) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 32-2 (.941) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Red Sox are 13-6 (.684) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .541.
The Red Sox are 35-2 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .894.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 6-2 (.750) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Blue Jays are 55-79 (.410) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Blue Jays are just 4-21 (.160) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Blue Jays are just 4-29 (.121) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .401 (347 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .339 (2,435 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .265 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Blue Jays are batting .376 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Blue Jays hitters have 41 extra-base hits out of 144 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 240 of 3,168 batters (8%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 32 of 510 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 61% of their games this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 2,553 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% against Blue Jays pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 681 of 9,244 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Pop (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D15
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Masataka Yoshida (Red Sox): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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