Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 2

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 02, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Blue Jays (89-69) are -225 favorites vs the Red Sox (75-83)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (11-1), 3.06 ERA
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman (12-10), 3.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (+180) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-225) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 75-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 69-89 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -115O 7.5 -110+180
Blue Jays -1.5 -105U 7.5 -110-225

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 56 away games (+22.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 28 away games (+17.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 55 away games (+16.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 54 away games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+15.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 46 games at home (+14.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 57 games at home (+13.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+11.60 Units / 28% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bo Bichette 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Danny Jansen 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
George Springer 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Matt Chapman 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Raimel Tapia 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bo Bichette 1.5 +150 1.5 -225
Danny Jansen 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
George Springer 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Matt Chapman 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Raimel Tapia 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bo Bichette 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Danny Jansen 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
George Springer 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Matt Chapman 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Raimel Tapia 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Michael Wacha 3.5 -165 3.5 +120
Gausman 6.5 -165 6.5 +115
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 76 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 129 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 71 away games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 away games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+4.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+14.22 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 117 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.75 Units / 18% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 80-78 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -0.88% ROI).

  • 75-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -8.56% ROI
  • 74-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -3.71% ROI
  • 74-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -3.9% ROI

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 69-89 against the Run Line (-25.3 Units / -13.37% ROI).

  • 89-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -6.58% ROI
  • 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -0.84% ROI
  • 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -15 Units / -8.55% ROI

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (276/576) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (98/534) against Michael Wacha this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 37% (382/1,026) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 68% (13/19) against Michael Wacha against right-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.

Kevin Gausman: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (548/1,375) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 38% (504/1,315) against Kevin Gausman since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 43% (239/551) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 51% (918/1,797) against Kevin Gausman in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Red Sox are just 4-64 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Red Sox are just 5-62 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Red Sox are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Blue Jays are 75-19 (.798) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Blue Jays are 46-34 (.575) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Blue Jays are just 4-56 (.067) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Blue Jays are 75-4 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .272 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .356 at home over the last 14 days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .765 (6,132 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.69 (712.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.

Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 399 times this season — most in MLB.

The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 415 of 5,921 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 888 of 11,837 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
  • Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
  • Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Finger, Day-to-Day
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Blue Jays vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.