- The Blue Jays (89-69) are -225 favorites vs the Red Sox (75-83)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (11-1), 3.06 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman (12-10), 3.30 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+180) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-225) on Sunday, October 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 75-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 69-89 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | O 7.5 -110 | +180 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -110 | -225 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 56 away games (+22.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 28 away games (+17.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 55 away games (+16.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 54 away games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 away games (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+15.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 46 games at home (+14.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 57 games at home (+13.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+11.60 Units / 28% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Raimel Tapia | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -225 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Raimel Tapia | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Chapman | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Raimel Tapia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +120 |
| Gausman | 6.5 -165 | 6.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 76 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 129 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 71 away games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 away games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games (+4.15 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+14.22 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 117 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 80-78 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -0.88% ROI).
- 75-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.7 Units / -8.56% ROI
- 74-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -3.71% ROI
- 74-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.8 Units / -3.9% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 69-89 against the Run Line (-25.3 Units / -13.37% ROI).
- 89-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.1 Units / -6.58% ROI
- 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -0.84% ROI
- 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -15 Units / -8.55% ROI
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (276/576) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (98/534) against Michael Wacha this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 37% (382/1,026) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 68% (13/19) against Michael Wacha against right-handed batters — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.
Kevin Gausman: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 40% (548/1,375) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 38% (504/1,315) against Kevin Gausman since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 43% (239/551) against Kevin Gausman this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 51% (918/1,797) against Kevin Gausman in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are just 4-64 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 65-7 (.903) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Red Sox are just 5-62 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Red Sox are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 75-19 (.798) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Blue Jays are 46-34 (.575) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Blue Jays are just 4-56 (.067) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Blue Jays are 75-4 (.949) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .272 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .356 at home over the last 14 days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .664 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
The Blue Jays are batting .261 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
The Blue Jays are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of .765 (6,132 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.69 (712.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
Red Sox pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 399 times this season — most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 415 of 5,921 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 888 of 11,837 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Blue Jays have won 38% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Blue Jays): Hamstring, D10
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Oblique, D10
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
- Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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