- The Blue Jays are -140 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: José Berríos
- Watch the game on SNET
The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-140) on Friday, September 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 74-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 67-80 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -115 | -140 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 65.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+11.10 Units / 123% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 16 away games (+9.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 49% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Jose Berrios | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 27 games (+15.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 56 away games (+4.64 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 away games (+2.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+0.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 71 of their last 122 games (+15.99 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 94 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.19 Units / 22% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 73-74 against the Run Line (-11.45 Units / -5.94% ROI).
- 74-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -3.79% ROI
- 78-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.45 Units / 5.22% ROI
- 63-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.35 Units / -14.43% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 67-80 against the Run Line (-15.55 Units / -8.58% ROI).
- 80-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.45 Units / -6.66% ROI
- 64-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.75 Units / -12.29% ROI
- 77-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.3 Units / 3.87% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (131/214) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (97/156) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (186/311) against Brayan Bello since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .349 (67-for-192) against Brayan Bello when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .212 against Jose Berrios vs right-handed batters this season — seventh best among qualified SPs– 88th Percentile. Right handed batters hit .276 (91-for-330) against him last season — tied for third worst among qualified SPs– eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 48% (28/58) against Jose Berrios in late innings since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% (66/179) against Jose Berrios in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Jose Berrios has attempted to pick off a runner at second base 14 timesthis season — most among qualified SPs in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Red Sox are 21-13 (.618) after a home win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Red Sox are just 13-126 (.094) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Red Sox are just 3-131 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 17-12 (.586) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Blue Jays are 150-36 (.806) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 73-28 (.723) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Blue Jays are 20-8 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .311 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .370 (657 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Red Sox are batting .282 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 494 strikeouts in 2,576 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting .277 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Blue Jays hitters have just 824 strikeouts in 4,163 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .268 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.09 (1044.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in late innings this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .267 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Finger, D10
- Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays): Back, D10
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Covid-19, D7
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
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