- The Blue Jays are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Christopher Sale
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Christopher Bassitt
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-145) on Saturday, September 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 74-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 68-80 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -115 | +120 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+11.10 Units / 123% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+7.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Davis Schneider has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+12.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| George Springer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Davis Schneider | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
| Chris Bassitt | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 73-75 against the Run Line (-13.05 Units / -6.71% ROI).
- 74-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.95 Units / -4.31% ROI
- 78-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.45 Units / 4.57% ROI
- 64-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.35 Units / -13.71% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 68-80 against the Run Line (-14.15 Units / -7.77% ROI).
- 81-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -6.16% ROI
- 64-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.75 Units / -12.84% ROI
- 78-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.3 Units / 4.45% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (79/183) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 31% (191/608) against Chris Sale this season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 32% (89/275) against Chris Sale this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (14/70) against Chris Sale on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 97th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (45/221) against Chris Bassitt on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 11th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (283/1,333) against Chris Bassitt this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an OPS of just .583 (368 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .691 — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .213 (72-for-338) against Chris Bassitt this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 86th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Red Sox are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Red Sox are 57-3 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Red Sox are 22-18 (.550) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Red Sox are 33-33 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Blue Jays are 17-12 (.586) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Blue Jays are 151-36 (.807) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays are 20-8 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are just 8-49 (.140) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .369 (665 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .311 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox are batting .185 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox are batting .282 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Blue Jays are batting .375 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters have just 497 strikeouts in 2,582 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Blue Jays are batting just .242 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 53 of 511 batters (10%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.08 (1052.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 22% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in late innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 875 of 11,650 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
- Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Finger, D10
- Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays): Back, D10
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Covid-19, D7
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Triston Casas (Red Sox): Shouder, D10
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