Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 17

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 17, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Blue Jays are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-145) on Sunday, September 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto.

The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Red Sox vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Red Sox are 74-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 68-81 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -165O 8.5 -115+120
Blue Jays -1.5 +135U 8.5 -105-145

Red Sox vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 60.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Pablo Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+11.10 Units / 123% ROI)
  • Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.85 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Tanner Houck has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Davis Schneider has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Matt Chapman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.45 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Davis Schneider has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+12.05 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Davis Schneider has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ceddanne Rafaela 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Davis Schneider 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Rafael Devers 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ceddanne Rafaela 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Davis Schneider 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Rafael Devers 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 -145 0.5 +110
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -130 0.5 +100

Blue Jays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ceddanne Rafaela 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Davis Schneider 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Rafael Devers 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Kevin Kiermaier 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Blue Jays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hyun-Jin Ryu 4.5 +120 4.5 -155
Nick Pivetta 6.5 +100 6.5 -135
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 74-75 against the Run Line (-12.05 Units / -6.14% ROI).

  • 74-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -4.82% ROI
  • 78-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.4 Units / 3.9% ROI
  • 65-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.35 Units / -13% ROI

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 68-81 against the Run Line (-15.15 Units / -8.27% ROI).

  • 82-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -5.66% ROI
  • 64-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.8 Units / -13.4% ROI
  • 79-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 5.02% ROI

Nick Pivetta has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (148 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 80.6

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .827 (139 Total Bases / 168 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .589 — 0 Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (330 Total Bases / 469 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: .562 — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased 174 of Nick Pivetta’s 496 fastballs out of the zone (35%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hyun Jin Ryu has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to August 26th — Kenta Maeda has the longest active streak at 11.

Hyun Jin Ryu has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to September 1st — the longest active streak is 5.

Hyun Jin Ryu has allowed three-ball counts to 2% of batters they faced (18/771 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Hyun Jin Ryu has allowed a slugging percentage of .491 (245 Total Bases / 499 ABs) at home since the 2021 season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: .395 — third Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Red Sox are 61-3 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.

The Red Sox are 43-30 (.589) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Red Sox are 33-33 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.

The Red Sox are just 3-132 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Blue Jays are 17-12 (.586) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.

The Blue Jays are 152-36 (.809) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Blue Jays are 33-51 (.393) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Blue Jays are 36-14 (.720) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .566.

The Red Sox are batting .309 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .368 (674 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .330.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .765 (4,301 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .733.

The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.

The Blue Jays are batting .266 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Blue Jays are batting .267 against LHP since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .336 (2,604 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.04 (1065.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .268 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .241.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the past seven days (7 games) — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 880 of 11,698 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (1335.0 IP) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.

Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D60
  • Otto Lopez (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
  • Daniel Jansen (Blue Jays): Finger, D10
  • Hagen Danner (Blue Jays): Oblique, D60
  • Brandon Belt (Blue Jays): Back, D10
  • Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Red Sox): Covid-19, D7
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Toe, D60
  • Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
  • Triston Casas (Red Sox): Shouder, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.