- The Braves are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck, 0.00 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Jared Shuster, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+145) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-175) on Tuesday, March 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EST in North Port.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 7-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 2-5 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -125 | O 10.5 -120 | +145 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 10.5 +100 | -175 |
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 64.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.60 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 8-2 against the Run Line (+7.05 Units / 58.75% ROI).
- 7-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 57.09% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.55 Units / -13.96% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.7 Units / 6.42% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 2-5 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -47.31% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -7.65% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 9.55% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -16.45% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) last season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Houck walked 14 of 101 left-handed batters (14%) last season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — fifth Percentile.
42% of Tanner Houck’s fastball strikeouts were located inside last season — 11th highest among among 123 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — 91st Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Braves vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
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