- The Braves are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Braves starting pitcher: –
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-165) on Wednesday, May 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 21-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 17-19 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -140 | O 9.5 -110 | +135 |
| Braves | -1.5 +115 | U 9.5 -110 | -165 |
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+13.45 Units / 61% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+12.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+7.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+7.30 Units / 61% ROI)
Braves vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Braves vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Braves vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Orlando Arcia | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games (+13.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 31 games (+6.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 36 games (+14.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+9.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+5.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 21-16 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 7.04% ROI).
- 21-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.7 Units / 15.97% ROI
- 25-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +13.05 Units / 32.42% ROI
- 11-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -17 Units / -41.11% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 17-19 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -1.93% ROI).
- 25-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.75 Units / 16.85% ROI
- 22-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.95 Units / 20.36% ROI
- 13-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -28.89% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (32/56) against Brayan Bello this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (9/15) against Brayan Bello when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 60% (9/15) against Brayan Bello on inside fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 32% — second Percentile.
74% of Brayan Bello strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 96th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Dodd has a strike rate of 72% (175/242) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (24-for-66) against Dylan Dodd this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .255 — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 56% of Dylan Dodd’s pitches (136/242) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 99th Percentile.
Dylan Dodd has a strikeout rate of just 10% (7 SO in 70 PAs) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are 11-12 (.478) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Red Sox are 16-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .888.
The Red Sox are just 7-77 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Red Sox are just 4-9 (.308) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 14-3 (.824) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 20-0 (1.000) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Braves are 13-5 (.722) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .451 (133 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .379 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Red Sox are batting .462 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Red Sox hitters have just 183 strikeouts in 967 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .549 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .923 (449 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .743.
The Braves have a winning percentage of 83% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves hitters are slugging .466 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 22 of 326 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 56% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 4 of 106 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 86% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 26% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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