• The Braves are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
• Red Sox vs Braves Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Red Sox / Braves TV Channel: NESN | BRVN | GRAY

The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-145) on May 16, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Red Sox are 18-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 30-15 ATS.

Red Sox vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Payton Tolle 1-2, 2.82 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder 4-1, 1.82 ERA

Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Red Sox vs Braves and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Willson Contreras has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+13.80 Units / 153% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.05 Units / 52% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 15 away games (+9.50 Units / 63% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Drake Baldwin has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+13.40 Units / 134% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Drake Baldwin has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+12.35 Units / 48% ROI)
• Bryce Elder has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 49% ROI)
• Bryce Elder has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+13.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.15 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 away games (+4.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.45 Units / 36% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games (+19.80 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+13.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 40 games (+13.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+12.20 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.05 Units / 26% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 17-26 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -16.75% ROI).

• 18-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.95 Units / -25.34% ROI
• 19-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -15.64% ROI
• 24-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 6.52% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 30-15 against the Run Line (+19.8 Units / 38.37% ROI).

• 31-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.3 Units / 21.28% ROI
• 18-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -16.27% ROI
• 24-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.8 Units / 9.76% ROI

Braves vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Red Sox are 17-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .894.

The Red Sox are just 2-14 (.125) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .372.

The Red Sox are just 0-21 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Red Sox are just 0-23 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Braves are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Braves are 31-14 (.689) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 8-6 (.571) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Red Sox (ninth in runs allowed).

The Braves are 26-5 (.839) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .338 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have a 41% QAB rate with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .270 against LHP this season — best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of just .645 (1,243 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Braves Hitting Stats & Trends

Braves hitters are slugging .455 against RHP this season — best in MLB.

Braves hitters are slugging .446 this season — best in MLB.

The Braves are batting .268 this season — best in MLB.

The Braves are batting .419 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have 51 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 0.89 runs per game (39/44) in late innings this season — tied for best in MLB.

Braves Pitching Stats & Trends

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Braves have allowed 0.89 runs per game (40/45) in late innings this season — tied for best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.99 (401.0 IP) this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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