- The Braves are -185 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Watch the game on TBS
The Boston Red Sox (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Tuesday, May 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Red Sox vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 21-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 16-19 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -125 | O 9.5 -105 | +150 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 9.5 -115 | -185 |
Red Sox vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+14.45 Units / 68% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+13.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 32 games (+11.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games (+10.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 51% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+6.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Braves vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Braves vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Braves Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 21-15 against the Run Line (+4.6 Units / 9.92% ROI).
- 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.7 Units / 18.8% ROI
- 24-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.05 Units / 30.74% ROI
- 11-24 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.85 Units / -39.43% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 16-19 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -4.56% ROI).
- 24-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 15.61% ROI
- 21-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.95 Units / 18.29% ROI
- 13-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.45 Units / -26.79% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (1,096/2,552) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.0 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (102 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 80.5
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (558/1,327) when behind in the count since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (56/325) against Nick Pivetta when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (133/278) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (252/559) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (336/811) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (1,354/3,462) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Red Sox are 11-12 (.478) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Red Sox are 7-6 (.538) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Red Sox are just 7-77 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Red Sox are 19-3 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Braves are 25-18 (.581) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Braves are 14-3 (.824) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 7-5 (.583) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Braves are 72-13 (.847) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .457 (127 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
The Red Sox are batting .382 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .500 (84 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Red Sox hitters have just 174 strikeouts in 939 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .548 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .919 (442 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .744.
The Braves have a winning percentage of 83% on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Braves hitters are slugging .680 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 21 of 318 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 3 of 107 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 56% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have won 86% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D15
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D10
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Lucas Luetge (Braves): Bicep, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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