- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock
- Brewers starting pitcher: Wade Miley
- Watch the game on BSWIX
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-125) on Saturday, April 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 11-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 13-7 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +105 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+7.80 Units / 130% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.40 Units / 104% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Brewers vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Owen Miller | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+10.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 11-10 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 4.09% ROI).
- 11-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.99% ROI
- 14-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.2 Units / 26.78% ROI
- 7-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.65 Units / -37.2% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 13-7 against the Run Line (+6.35 Units / 24.9% ROI).
- 14-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.25 Units / 39.19% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.55 Units / -15.78% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 5.57% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock has induced opposing hitters to ground into 2 double plays in 5 opportunities (40%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has walked 34 of 653 batters (5%) since the 2021 season — 10th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 94th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has allowed an OBP of just .257 (152 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .333 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% (26/67) against Garrett Whitlock’s changeup since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 51% — sixth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (353/613) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has thrown his changeup 42% of the time (79/190) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has thrown his cutter 60% of the time (556/922) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total CUT; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Wade Miley has allowed an OBP of just .062 (16 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .328 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are 3-9 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Red Sox are 8-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Red Sox are just 7-72 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Red Sox are 2-9 (.182) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are just 0-3 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Brewers are 3-4 (.429) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Brewers are 19-10 (.655) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 5-2 (.714) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .493 (69 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
The Red Sox are batting .397 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have just 93 strikeouts in 489 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .222 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers hitters have 47 strikeouts in 145 PA’s (32%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Brewers hitters are slugging .500 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (722.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.70 (853.0 IP) at home since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.57 (63.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Brewers pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gus Varland (Brewers): Hand, D15
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D10
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Corbin Burnes (Brewers): Pectoral, Day-to-Day
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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