- The Brewers are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Boston Red Sox (+145) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-175) on Sunday, April 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Red Sox vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 11-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 13-8 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -115 | +145 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -105 | -175 |
Red Sox vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 67.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.75 Units / 56% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Yu Chang has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 74% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.85 Units / 76% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+9.45 Units / 135% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)
Brewers vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Brewers vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 12-10 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 7.45% ROI).
- 11-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -4.75% ROI
- 15-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.2 Units / 29.63% ROI
- 7-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -39.92% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 13-8 against the Run Line (+5.35 Units / 20.19% ROI).
- 15-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.25 Units / 41.16% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -10.78% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.66% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has limited playing time.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (164/260) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 42% (105/251) against Corbin Burnes on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (577/892) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
118 of Corbin Burnes’ 260 strikeouts (45%) have come on cutters since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Red Sox are 3-10 (.231) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Red Sox are 1-11 (.083) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .038.
The Red Sox are 4-4 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Red Sox are 37-41 (.474) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Brewers are 2-6 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Brewers are 15-5 (.750) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Brewers are 6-2 (.750) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
The Brewers are just 0-3 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .486 (70 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Red Sox hitters have just 95 strikeouts in 503 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,887 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Red Sox are batting .390 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 22 strikeouts in 63 PA’s (35%) against LHP over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers hitters have 487 strikeouts in 1,858 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have 47 strikeouts in 147 PA’s (32%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Brewers are batting just .221 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (59.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 34 of 524 batters (7%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.70 (853.0 IP) at home since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed 31 home runs this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.75 (72.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .133 against Brewers pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Brewers vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gus Varland (Brewers): Hand, D15
- Luis UrÃas (Brewers): Hamstring, D10
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D10
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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