Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 1

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 01, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Red Sox (43-33) are -150 favorites vs the Cubs (30-46)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (4-4), 4.09 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-0), 1.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Boston Red Sox (-150) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+125) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 43-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 38-38 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +110O 8 -105-150
Cubs +1.5 -135U 8 -115+125

Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 74.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+11.95 Units / 53% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+8.75 Units / 113% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+9.45 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+8.95 Units / 128% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)

Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +375 0.5 -650
Ian Happ 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Willson Contreras 0.5 +290 0.5 -500

Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Christopher Morel 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Willson Contreras 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrelton Simmons 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Christopher Morel 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Ian Happ 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Patrick Wisdom 0.5 +120 0.5 -175
Willson Contreras 0.5 +135 0.5 -200

Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 3.5 -110 3.5 -130
Rich Hill 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 47 games (+17.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 away games (+9.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 75 games (+6.15 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.05 Units / 44% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-33 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 11.12% ROI).

  • 43-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 4.77% ROI
  • 30-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -11.81% ROI
  • 37-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 6.11% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 38-38 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -6.14% ROI).

  • 30-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.95 Units / -16.41% ROI
  • 38-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -1.73% ROI
  • 36-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -6.77% ROI

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (362/754) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 64% of the time (139/217) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,061/2,517) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (101/227) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Sampson has limited playing time.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Red Sox are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Red Sox are 18-4 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Red Sox are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Red Sox are just 0-23 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Cubs are just 22-91 (.195) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are 110-4 (.965) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Cubs are just 30-34 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

The Cubs are just 8-35 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox have scored first in 72% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Cubs are batting .401 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Cubs hitters have 1,671 strikeouts in 6,516 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 38 double plays in 274 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .670 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Red Sox have won 44% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Red Sox have won 49% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Cubs have won just 7% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 850 of 9,127 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.