- The Red Sox (43-33) are -150 favorites vs the Cubs (30-46)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (4-4), 4.09 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (0-0), 1.68 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (-150) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+125) on Friday, July 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 43-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 38-38 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +110 | O 8 -105 | -150 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | +125 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s matchup with 74.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+11.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 away games (+8.75 Units / 113% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+9.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+8.95 Units / 128% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrelton Simmons | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -130 |
| Rich Hill | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 47 games (+17.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 31 away games (+9.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 75 games (+6.15 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+3.05 Units / 44% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-33 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 11.12% ROI).
- 43-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.7 Units / 4.77% ROI
- 30-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.95 Units / -11.81% ROI
- 37-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.1 Units / 6.11% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 38-38 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -6.14% ROI).
- 30-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.95 Units / -16.41% ROI
- 38-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.45 Units / -1.73% ROI
- 36-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -6.77% ROI
Richard Hill: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (362/754) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 64% of the time (139/217) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,061/2,517) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 117 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (101/227) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has limited playing time.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Red Sox are 18-4 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Red Sox are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Red Sox are just 0-23 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are just 22-91 (.195) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are 110-4 (.965) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Cubs are just 30-34 (.469) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Cubs are just 8-35 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox have scored first in 72% of their road games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .401 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters have 1,671 strikeouts in 6,516 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 38 double plays in 274 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .670 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Red Sox have won 44% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox have won 49% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 7% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 850 of 9,127 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- David Bote (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Rib, D60
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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