Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 14

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 14, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Cubs
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Boston Red Sox (-135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+115) on Friday, July 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

This season, the Red Sox are 48-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 46-43 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox-1.5 +120O 9 +100-135
Cubs +1.5 -145U 9 -120+115

Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 59.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Red Sox vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+11.95 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Brayan Bello has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+9.40 Units / 22% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+11.90 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.90 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Edwin Rios has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Connor Wong 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Rafael Devers 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Christopher Morel 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 1.5 +190 1.5 -250
Connor Wong 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
Rafael Devers 1.5 +190 1.5 -250
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Christopher Morel 0.5 -175 0.5 +130

Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Connor Wong 0.5 +190 0.5 -250
Rafael Devers 0.5 -105 0.5 -125
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Christopher Morel 0.5 +185 0.5 -250

Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brayan Bello 4.5 -145 4.5 +110
Kyle Hendricks 3.5 -120 3.5 -110
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 78 games (+9.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+8.30 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 54 games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.90 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+3.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 43 games at home (+2.85 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.10 Units / 23% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 48-43 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -0.59% ROI).

  • 48-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 3.97% ROI
  • 47-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 1.4% ROI
  • 41-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -11.22% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 46-43 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.53% ROI).

  • 42-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -6.05% ROI
  • 44-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -2.94% ROI
  • 42-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.2 Units / -6.38% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 12% (14/122) against Brayan Bello this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 50% (131/262) on sliders this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 35% (92/262) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 49% — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (32/199) against Brayan Bello since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Hendricks has averaged 86.9 MPH on fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.

Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.4 MPH on fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — 0 Percentile.

Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 87.0 MPH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.

Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 87.4 MPH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Red Sox are 38-2 (.950) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Red Sox are 37-6 (.860) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

The Red Sox are 17-12 (.586) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

The Red Sox are 16-7 (.696) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .539.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 4-34 (.105) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.

The Cubs are just 5-16 (.238) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .397 (383 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.

The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .334 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .538 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .439.

The Cubs are batting just .285 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .353.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .426 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.

Cubs hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Cubs hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 260 of 3,433 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in late innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Red Sox have have still managed to win 37% of the time this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 54 of 789 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 8% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Cubs pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,232 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.

Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
  • Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
  • Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
  • Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
  • Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
  • Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
  • Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
  • Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.