- The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Cubs
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Saturday, July 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 49-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 46-44 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +140 | O 9 -115 | -115 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -165 | U 9 -105 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+7.40 Units / 60% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.20 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Edwin Rios has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+8.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Nick Madrigal has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Matt Mervis has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +100 |
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 79 games (+10.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+7.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+6.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+3.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 31 games at home (+2.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 49-43 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.46% ROI).
- 49-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 4.82% ROI
- 48-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 2.36% ROI
- 41-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.25 Units / -12.1% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 46-44 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.78% ROI).
- 42-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -6.93% ROI
- 45-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -1.9% ROI
- 42-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -7.33% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .224 (170 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .308 — 100th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .178 (135 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 96th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OPS of just .559 (170 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .724 — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .171 (27-for-158) against James Paxton this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 56% of the time (504/896) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (184/312) against Marcus Stroman this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .284 (116 Total Bases / 409 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed a slugging percentage of just .169 (11 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 38-6 (.864) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Red Sox are 39-2 (.951) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Red Sox are 38-24 (.613) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .539.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 19-63 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Cubs are just 5-22 (.185) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .395 (387 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .333 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Red Sox are batting .280 at home since the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Cubs are batting just .292 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .443 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 262 of 3,470 batters (8%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in late innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,232 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 8% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 54 of 798 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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