- The Cubs are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Red Sox vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 49-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 47-44 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | O 9 +100 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -120 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+13.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+12.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+16.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+14.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+14.60 Units / 58% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+14.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Cubs vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cubs vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 80 games (+8.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 away games (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+6.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+7.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+3.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+3.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 32 games at home (+3.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 49-44 against the Run Line (-0.45 Units / -0.37% ROI).
- 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 3.7% ROI
- 49-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.4 Units / 3.32% ROI
- 41-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.4 Units / -13.09% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 47-44 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.9% ROI).
- 43-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -5.94% ROI
- 46-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -0.89% ROI
- 42-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.35 Units / -8.4% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .717 (43 Total Bases / 60 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .423 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (32/179) against Kutter Crawford this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 97th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown his slider 47% of the time (216/462) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 97th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strikeout rate of 47% (29 SO in 62 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (183/368) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (281/368) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 52% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (622/1,348) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.6 MPH (260 batted balls) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.2 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Red Sox are 35-2 (.946) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Red Sox are 39-2 (.951) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are 28-27 (.509) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Red Sox are 17-12 (.586) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 14-63 (.182) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Cubs are just 25-37 (.403) after a home loss since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .392 (390 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Red Sox are batting .330 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Red Sox are batting .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Red Sox are batting .279 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .296 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .446 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 83% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 266 of 3,510 batters (8%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 57 of 823 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in late innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,262 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 55 of 807 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 13% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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